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Pfizer Inc. Message Board

  • chrt13 chrt13 Nov 2, 2007 5:39 PM Flag

    How my 100K investment in Pfizer is faring

     

    Re-posting using a fresh date:


    Starting point - 100,000 on 11/17/04 with the stock at $27.99 and the S & P 500 around 1,182. Low-water mark was $31,650 with the stock at a 98-month closing low of $20.60 on 12/9/05. The high point before this calendar year was $181,645 with the stock at $28.47 on 9/20/06.

    12/01 - 180,300 ($27.86)
    12/04 - 098,985 ($24.90) Torcetrapib failure
    12/20 - 136,230 ($26.21)
    12/29 - 128,925 ($25.90) Year-end 2006 close
    01/19 - 157,645 ($27.22) Session before Q4-06 earnings
    01/22 - 155,030 ($26.95) Q4-06 earnings released
    01/23 - 143,400 ($26.37)
    01/24 - 154,145 ($26.82)
    01/29 - 136,040 ($26.06)
    02/05 - 156,390 ($26.88)
    02/07 - 154,240 ($26.52) Ex-dividend 29 cents
    02/12 - 147,595 ($26.22)
    02/14 - 156,970 ($26.58)
    02/26 - 139,465 ($25.84)
    02/27 - 119,990 ($25.14) 416-point Dow plunge
    03/05 - 106,875 ($24.70)
    03/09 - 127,390 ($25.41)
    03/14 - 110,045 ($24.86) Successful test of 3/5 low
    03/21 - 140,440 ($25.85)
    03/28 - 120,865 ($25.18) Last session before 10% Dow gain
    04/20 - 171,060 ($26.97) Session before Q1-07 earnings
    04/23 - 153,435 ($26.35) Q1-07 earnings released
    04/24 - 148,870 ($26.15)
    05/07 - 181,330 ($27.38)
    05/09 - 182,725 ($27.16) Ex-dividend 29 cents
    05/10 - 173,120 ($26.80)
    06/01 - 196,065 ($27.68) Closing high for 2007 to date
    06/07 - 157,150 ($26.29) Dow falls 410 points in 3 sessions
    06/08 - 164,855 ($26.52)
    06/12 - 154,950 ($26.11)
    06/15 - 166,485 ($26.47)
    06/20 - 142,370 ($25.71)
    06/21 - 150,580 ($25.92)
    06/25 - 133,045 ($25.40)
    07/05 - 148,130 ($25.90)
    07/11 - 133,885 ($25.45)
    07/16 - 153,140 ($26.08)
    07/17 - 152,000 ($25.96) Session before Q2 earnings
    07/18 - 121,690 ($25.13) Q2 earnings released
    07/31 - 064,285 ($23.51) Dow falls by 5.63% since 7/19
    08/02 - 076,350 ($23.85)
    08/03 - 064,460 ($23.51)
    08/08 - 110,685 ($24.61) Ex-dividend 29 cents
    08/16 - 069,210 ($23.39) Closing stock price low for 2007
    08/24 - 113,760 ($24.74)
    08/28 - 103,710 ($24.47)
    09/04 - 124,655 ($25.08)
    09/10 - 085,710 ($23.96)
    09/19 - 115,645 ($24.88)
    09/25 - 095,035 ($24.24)
    09/27 - 112,895 ($24.75)
    09/28 - 099,970 ($24.43)
    10/05 - 138,925 ($25.58)
    10/17 - 100,975 ($24.55) Session before Q3 earnings
    10/18 - 101,625 ($24.54) Q3 earnings released
    10/19 - 083,325 ($24.07) 367-point Dow plunge
    10/24 - 079,380 ($23.98)
    10/31 - 102,250 ($24.61)
    11/01 - 078,585 ($23.95) 362-point Dow plunge
    11/02 - 063,610 ($23.67) Low valuation for 2007

    For 2007 to date, the investment is down by 50.6% ($65,315) on a 5.3% decrease in the stock price including three 29-cent dividends.

    From 11/17/04 inception, the investment is down by 10.8% annualized on a compound interest basis with the S & P 500 compounded annualized return being 8.6%.

    This investment is highly-leveraged to the point where I earn about six times what a buy-and-hold investor does up to $27.50. Between $27.51 and $30, I earn about three-and-a-half times what a buy-and-hold investor does. However, I still earn a decent return if the stock does nothing at all (20 to 25% earned per year) and I only get hurt somewhat should the stock really tank. In that case, I would lose over time something like two-and-a-half times that of a buy-and-hold investor. That would be on paper. In order to truly be saddled with that loss, the stock would have to stay down for over a year.

    My current breakeven is down to $24.40 at March options expiration. Every point between $25.00 and $27.50 means about 40K over time. Over $27.50, every point means about 24K.

    With the stock at the same closing price as it is now ($23.67) at March options expiration, I would be able to cash out for 68K.

    If Pfizer is $27.50 at March expiration, I would likely be able to cash out for 228K factoring in the effects of remaining rollovers.

    If Pfizer is $31 in mid-January 2009, I will be able to cash out for at least 350K.

    This topic is deleted.
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    • You again miss the point. Reread your post and my response. I was disagreeing with your statement that Lipitor has become irrelevant. I'm not PREDICTING a further sales decline, but only saying that IF Pfe announced that there was a sudden further shift to generic Zocor which would cause '08 earnings to drop .05-.07 then IN THAT EVENT contrary to your dismissive statement, the market WOULD care.

    • > I don't speculate on things I know little about - only rock-solid situations like Pfizer.

      ========================================================
      Re: Yet again, as usual, more massive dumpage by "pros" 05-May-07

      Absolutely. With the odds so stacked in my favor, it's the position I want to be in.

      I really doubt if I'll be seeing the dark side of 150K again with this investment.

      chrt03

    • > I don't speculate on things I know little about - only rock-solid situations like Pfizer.

      ====================================================
      Re: A raft of small negatives for Pfizer this week 15-Jun-07 04:13 pm

      Just you wait and see what happens between July 20 and Aug. 10. No artificial resistance can hold back the tide when management hikes revenue and earnings estimates for the full year.

      I wish Pfizer had something for this seasonal drooling problem of mine. It seems to start in early June each year and it gets progressively worse over the next six or seven weeks. Then it goes away and I don't get it again until early June of the following year. I wonder if others encounter the same phenomenon?

      chrt13

    • > I don't speculate on things I know little about - only rock-solid situations like Pfizer

      What was chartness told on July 9?

      *********************************************
      Re: Lipitor's Market share decline continues. 9-Jul-07 10:21 am

      "Management was right in forecasting Lipitor revenues ranging from a modest decline to a modest gain"

      So you will be suprised on July 18 when Pfizer (a) changes their Lipitor forecase from "ranging from a modest decline to a modest gain" to "ranging from a modest decline to level," and (b) does not increase their 2007 guidance?

      Will that suprise you?

      optionsalchemist2...
      *****************************************************

      He was told that Pfize would changes their Lipitor forecase from "ranging from a modest decline to a modest gain" to "ranging from a modest decline to level," and guess what Pfizer did?

      They changed their forecast from "ranging from a modest decline to a modest gain" to "level to a 5% decline."

      All the moron has to do is listen to those who know more than him... which is about the entire population of the World!

    • > I don't speculate on things I know little about - only rock-solid situations like Pfizer

      *************************************************
      Re: Milo, your bet's looking good! Already 65% of the way 13-Jun-07 08:25 pm

      There's no "traditionally" about it. The past three years it just so happens there were major travesties the second half (adverse Celebrex test in 2004, the yanking of estimates in 2005 and Torcetrapib failure in 2006).

      There's nothing apparent in the way of travesties in 2007. No optimistic forecasts and no huge drugs under development that could fail. Any travesty this year would have to come completely out of the blue. There would be little reason for an investor to expect any such thing.

      You saw the lows this year on March 5 with the $24.70 close. Nothing resembling that will be seen. EVER!

      chrt13
      ****************************************************

      Got that? "Nothing resembling that will be seen. EVER!"

    • > I don't speculate on things I know little about...

      Re: Eleven full sessions and tomorrow's half-session 2-Jul-07 06:41 pm

      If PFE beats Q2 numbers by even two pennies - coming in with 52 cents a share, that would push first-half profits up to $1.20.

      And whatever number Q2 is, there would be little rationale in expecting much less for Q3. There will still be only a very few generic Norvasc manufacturers in the September quarter. No other drug is losing patent expiration in Q3. And there certainly will be additional ramp-ups for the likes of Lyrica, Chantix and Sutent. In addition, Lyrica is now approved for fibromyalgia. And the agreement with Express Scripts will benefit Pfizer for a full three months in Q3 - not just the one month (June) in Q2. There will also be even more cost-cutting and another 1.3% or so of shares will be repurchased.

      So even if Q3 is the same 52 cents, it would mean $1.72 in earnings for the nine months through September.

      Management has a midpoint only between $2.11 and $2.12 currently for the full year? How can they not raise when Q4 would be expected to be in the 50-cent area or more? Last year's Q4 was only 43 cents but that was most-anomalous as the company had to expense significant additional R & D when Torcetrapib failed. R & D for Q4 alone was an astounding $2.41B last yeear - this year about $550M less would be the expectation - which is six cents a share.

      So even if as little as 52 cents is seen in Q2 (consensus is 50 cents), it would be hard to make a case for anything less than $2.20 in full-year earnings. I would expect management to at least bump up their estimate by a nickel a share. That would be enough to touch off a decent-sized rally in the stock.

    • > I don't speculate on things I know little about...

      Let's see chartweasel in action.

      Here is the perfect example of chartweasel weaseling his way around:

      *******************************************************
      the evolution of LIE 25-Jul-07 12:03 PM

      "Pfizer accomplished that feat by channel stuffing..."

      then came:

      ""I never accused Pfizer management of channel-stuffing."

      then came:

      "" I THOUGHT they engaged in channel -stuffing "

      then came:

      ""There was either >>intentional<<< channel -stuffing at 12/31/05 or conversely sky-high wholesaler inventories"

      then came:

      ""I seriously doubt if there's a lot of intentional channel -stuffing going on by Pfizer"

      and there was:

      ".How did they do it? Part of it looks like channel stuffing "

      and now it's:

      "it wasn't channel stuffing per se"

      he is a LIAR and he'll post one lie on top of another in an attempt to avoid the TRUTH!!!!!!

      and then:

      "the huge revenue surge in Q4 wasn't >>>technically<<< channel stuffing.


      pebble_perfect

    • > I don't speculate on things I know little about...

      ======================
      Re: Odds Are That PFE Will Break $25 Tomorrow (20 Ratings) 27-Feb-07 10:21 pm

      I'm not going to lose any sleep if after feeling that the stock would go no lower than $25 it turns out that something like $24.80 ended up being the closing low. If I'm off the mark, it isn't by very much.

      This is the time for aggression - not timidity.

      chrt03
      ==========================================
      ==========================================
      Re: Another day, another lower low for PFE!

      ...This company is just not going to be allowed to yield something like 4.7%.

      chartness2003

      19-Jun-06 07:15 pm
      =========================
      Re: "That was your one and only chance to get it below $25 this year." 10-Jul-07 03:31 pm

      If it's a mind-numbing screaming buy at $24.99, what is it at $25.70 - a sell? If it's all that mind-numbing a buy at $24.99, it at least has to be a very good buy at $25.70.

      With only a handful of sessions to go before earnings, it's too much to ask for there to be a massive push-button market decline that might drag the stock down to the round number.

      For me, it's mind-numbing for a person to really want to add shares but to let a few dimes get in the way. You don't have to worry about anything mind-numbing because you simply aren't likely to see Pfizer in the 24's. But MY mind is going numb just hearing this philosophy from you about this obviously undervalued stock needing to be a few dimes lower.

      chrt13
      ================
      Re: "That was your one and only chance to get it below $25 this year." 10-Jul-07 11:08 am

      The stock is down by all of a dime right now and even at its worst when the Dow was down 80 it was still $25.68 - still quite a ways from falling below $25.

      For the sake of a few dimes, you are going to miss out on buying shares at a price that doesn't figure to be seen again once earnings come out.

      In the long-term scheme of things, is there really much difference in buying the stock at $25.80 as opposed to say $25.20? With earnings being this close, Pfizer figures to hold on better than you might expect even if the market tumbles.

      Don't be silly and miss out on these current depressed prices for the sake of a few dimes. Pull the trigger this week - before earnings start having a positive effect.

      chrt13
      ====================
      Re: Milo, your bet's looking good! Already 65% of the way 13-Jun-07 08:25 pm

      There's no "traditionally" about it. The past three years it just so happens there were major travesties the second half (adverse Celebrex test in 2004, the yanking of estimates in 2005 and Torcetrapib failure in 2006).

      There's nothing apparent in the way of travesties in 2007. No optimistic forecasts and no huge drugs under development that could fail. Any travesty this year would have to come completely out of the blue. There would be little reason for an investor to expect any such thing.

      You saw the lows this year on March 5 with the $24.70 close. Nothing resembling that will be seen. EVER!

      chrt13
      ====================
      Summarizing my PFE predictions still in force 1-Mar-07 11:55 am

      I expect the following:

      1) Tuesday's close of $25.14 will prove to be in the lowest 10% of the range between the low close of the year and the high close of the year.

      2) Today's $24.55 intraday low will also be the 2007 intraday low.

      3) $31 will be seen on a closing basis before the year is out.

      4) Pro forma earnings per share this year will be at least $2.30.

      chrt03

      =======================
      Re: Another day, another lower low for PFE! 19-Jun-06 07:15 pm

      ...This company is just not going to be allowed to yield something like 4.7%.

      chartness2003

    • If Pfe announced that there has been a sudden reduction in Lipitor sales and for that reason alone EPS estimates are being reduced by .05-.07 for '08, the stock would fall by about a point IMHO. Many investors sell on any reduction in guidance, this one would also likely hurt '09 and '10, and the problem could actually accelerate. Would it have as bad an effect as if the EPS guidance were lowered .05-.07 due to reduced Lyrica sales? No. But you're kidding yourself if you think nobody cares about '08 Lipitor sales.

    • Sorry, but I just read your post. I don't understand your numbers... Are you saying you hold x shares and y options, and sell z calls or puts, and collec the dividend...? If you can explain what your starting point or strategy is, I would appreciate it. Or point me to the post that started this, and I will read it. Thanks in advance.

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