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Pfizer Inc. Message Board

  • single.maltius single.maltius Mar 28, 2008 12:23 PM Flag

    Dividend deduction driven decline, assuming no hikes

    until 2012, starting from this year's low so far, following first deduction:

    2007: 2019 - 96 = 1923
    2008: 1923 -128 = 1795
    2009: 1795 -128 = 1667
    2010: 1667 -128 = 1539

    PFE might start upward again in 2011, since Lipitor will begin going away then or in 2010, so PFE's long-term outlook could switch to positive instead of negative, although of course at a much lower level than now.

    Some catalyst powerful enough to overcome the deductions could possibly boost share price more than the subtractions for dividends, but hard at this point to predict such a deus ex machina.

    As for EPS, something like these LT estimates must currently be in fund managers' minds:

    2007-12: $2.18 flat to $2.18
    2008-13: $2.36 down to $2.33
    2009-14: $2.56 down to $2.49
    2010-15: $2.72 down to $2.66 (if Lipitor not lost 'til 2011)
    2011-16: $2.50 up to $2.85
    2012-17: $2.18 up to $3.05

    Of course, it's impossible to get close to dimes let alone pennies so far out, but the general trend, timing & slope of estimates envisioned by optimistic but reasonable fund managers should resemble this series, if not by the more conservative.

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PFE
30.25+0.16(+0.53%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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