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Pfizer Inc. Message Board

  • xyivam2006 xyivam2006 Feb 11, 2009 11:35 AM Flag

    Market perception vs. reality

    Market perception vs. reality

    Reality is: that income funds sold PFE after company slashed its divided 50%
    Reality is: company has positive cash flow and combine company can pay out all long-term debt in one year. Reality is: you don’t have that many companies today on a market that can manage the same.
    Perception is: this merger will be difficult and will NOT work the way management wants.
    Perception is baseless IMHO.
    Pfizer grown where it is now by mergers and acquisitions and merger with WYE is the most conservative way under circumstances and the most predictable one.
    I’m staying with this stock and feel now more comfortable than before the announcement.
    New PFE can grow EPS by cost cutting for a couple of years with NO new drugs and I’m sure there will be new drugs in 2 years time.
    Two years from now PFE will be around $25 and will pay $1 dividend but for now it’s looking as a boring situation and range bound $14 -$17 stocks till the next earnings and any meaningful news on merger.

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    • When the assumptions don't fit, neither will the conclusions.
      -------------------------------
      well many of us assume you're a liar, whick perfectly align with the conclusion, you spend the majority of your non-pfe posting telling the rest of the board that they're out of step,...no you though, everyone else is out of step by assuming that grew up a liar and remain so...

    • I posted that I still remembered a little of my high-school Spanish. One word that I did NOT remember though was "enough." That post from February somehow just assumed that I knew the Spanish word for "enough" but I didn't remember it at all. So obviously whnatever conclusions he drew based on the assumption that I knew the Spoanish for ":enough" were faulty.

      When the assumptions don't fit, neither will the conclusions.

    • Imbecilic ignoramus!

      The Romance languages are all closely related in vocabulary. Anyone with an IQ above room temperature who knows the word for "enough" in Spanish & Portuguese ("bastante") would recognize it in Italian ("basta")!

      Moronic fool!

    • You have the worst memory on any pollution poster in all cyberspace, as has been repeatedly showed here to your humiliation.

      Nor do you recall the least little bit of Spanish, or you'd have known immediately what "basta" means.

      French differs from Spanish & other Romance languages in many ways, including in using the same plural definite article in both genders, ie "les" instead of Spanish "las" & "los".

    • Your right, of course! How really stupid of me!

    • Les arbs.

    • Cherchez la (le?) "arbs", peut-être.

    • Here is an excerpt from your post:


      New PFE can grow EPS by cost cutting for a couple of years with NO new drugs



      The best thing is that post-Lipitor, they can grow earnings per share very nicely with NO new drugs. Such is the case because there aside from Celebrex in December 2014 and Zyvox in May 2015, Pfizer is free of patent expiration losses from October 2012 through the end of 2017. This fact can be confirmed by glancing at Pfizer's patent expiration schedule that can be found on Page #7 of the annual 10-K.

      I don't know of a single case where a big pharma hasn't grown earnings very nicely when there are low patent expirations - with the possible exception being drugs having to be taken off the market, etc.

      There are always going to be nice additive factors in a given year such as drug price hikes, population growth in the primary ethical drug-using ages, ramp-ups of recently-introduced products, baby boomers turning 65 in droves starting in 2011, big expansion into populous Third-World counties, new uses for existing products, etc. When losses to expiries are low, these additive factors just swamp the subtractive factors and earnings cn only go up.

      Revenue growth is simply the difference between all of the additive factors and the subtractive factors (losses to patent expirations and impairments due to safety reasons of products already on the market).

      When expiries are low, unless there are significant product impairments, how can revenues do anything but rise nicely? It doesn't even take any new drug introductions in a given year for that to happen.

      I think that most analysts have completely missed the boat regarding the implications of PFE having far-and-away the most-enviable patent expiration schedule in the business post-Lipitor.

    • So, you're saying (expecting) for it (PFE) to take 2 years for PFE to get back to where it was trading at just 16 months ago. Doesn't that say something about how "good" the WYE deal is, not!
      If your projections pan out and they are paying a $1 dividend then, it would be just about as pathetic as the dividend yield currently is (actually, worse!). You further said that they will have new drugs two years from now. What blockbuster one will replace the current revenues of Lipitor??? So again, what is it that you like about this company in the near term?
      From what I can see, you're making a pretty good case against PFE. Historically, its next support level is about $10. In a down market, what is there to keep it from approaching or even breaking down past those levels??? The facts are, that the only thing that went up for PFE overall in the past few years was its cash on hand (it certainly wasn't its share price) even when the markets had been way up. Then, they took all that money (and alot more) and buy a dinosaur and nobody seems to like the deal. So, it's likely that the share price is stuck spinning its wheels. If or when the market breaks down, PFE's spinning wheels could sink it deeper into the muck. If it does, to the $10 to $8 range, it would again become a value play but imo, not until then.

 
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