The norm over the last five years has been for the stock to rally by 2.8 times the amount of the quarterly dividend during the pre-dividend week. That implies a rally of about 50 cents a share kicking off perhaps Tuesday or Wednesday.
Three months ago when the stock was in the throes of an overall decline on a closing basis from $20.00 to $14.14, Pfizer still rallied during pre-dividend week from $16.46 to $17.26 - 80 cents or 4.4 times the amount of the 18-cent quarterly dividend.
As the late Hall-of-Fame baseball manager Casey Stengel used to say, "you could look it up."
If earnings are up to snuff, this particular pre-dividend rally could truly have some legs and explode to the upside. That's because of the proximity to two big downtrend lines:
1) the 50-day line that comes in tomorrow at about $14.95 and which will be under $14.80 on earnings release day
2) the six-month downtrend line from the January high that will be down to $14.99 on Friday and which is retreating at the rate of 19 cents a week.
A reasonable rally sends the stock above these key lines and chart players will be taking note.
============================================ The fourth year is the charm 16-Nov-07 06:09 pm
Today marks the end of the third year with my superior-methods plays on Pfizer. Yes - I'm indeed down by about 38% from 11/17/04 inception after having been as high as 196K on 6/1/07 and 180K or more on two other occasions in late 2006.
However, the next twelve months I expect to make up for lost time in a big way. The fourth year is going to be the charm.
I once again invite the board to "get maniacal" on leveraged Pfizer investments and don't delay too long because the big dividend-hike day is just four weeks from Monday.
Allow yourself to pull the trigger and you will be thanking me profusely this time next year.