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Pfizer Inc. Message Board

  • docwatson45 docwatson45 Jul 25, 2010 12:49 PM Flag

    Earning Rise and Fall

    I would like an opinion on how some of the long time pfe holders see the stock trading up to earnings. Anyone venture an opinion of the trading range going into next week and x-div.

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    • The norm over the last five years has been for the stock to rally by 2.8 times the amount of the quarterly dividend during the pre-dividend week. That implies a rally of about 50 cents a share kicking off perhaps Tuesday or Wednesday.

      Three months ago when the stock was in the throes of an overall decline on a closing basis from $20.00 to $14.14, Pfizer still rallied during pre-dividend week from $16.46 to $17.26 - 80 cents or 4.4 times the amount of the 18-cent quarterly dividend.

      As the late Hall-of-Fame baseball manager Casey Stengel used to say, "you could look it up."

      If earnings are up to snuff, this particular pre-dividend rally could truly have some legs and explode to the upside. That's because of the proximity to two big downtrend lines:

      1) the 50-day line that comes in tomorrow at about $14.95 and which will be under $14.80 on earnings release day

      2) the six-month downtrend line from the January high that will be down to $14.99 on Friday and which is retreating at the rate of 19 cents a week.

      A reasonable rally sends the stock above these key lines and chart players will be taking note.

      • 1 Reply to chrttwelve
      • ============================================
        The fourth year is the charm 16-Nov-07 06:09 pm

        Today marks the end of the third year with my superior-methods plays on Pfizer. Yes - I'm indeed down by about 38% from 11/17/04 inception after having been as high as 196K on 6/1/07 and 180K or more on two other occasions in late 2006.

        However, the next twelve months I expect to make up for lost time in a big way. The fourth year is going to be the charm.

        I once again invite the board to "get maniacal" on leveraged Pfizer investments and don't delay too long because the big dividend-hike day is just four weeks from Monday.

        Allow yourself to pull the trigger and you will be thanking me profusely this time next year.


        How many people now regret not taking chrt13 up on his invitiation to join him on November 16, 2007?

    • Often it rises a bit, as shorts cover to avoid paying the dividend, but then the price always falls more than the lost dividend deduction.

      There may be some nervousness ahead of earnings this time, leading to selling to offset some of the covering, if any.

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