You are missing the entire picture with Pfizer which is the change from years of big, clustered patent expirations to years of very few patent expirations.
Big patent expirations have almost an immediate negative effect on earnings whereas it takes years of ramp-ups for new drug approvals to move the needle very much.
There was a time when the prospects for a new blockbuster would be huge - that was a dozen or more years ago when these were $12B to $15B companies and a new $1B or $2B drug really meant something.
But for a $67B company, whether a $1B Tanezumab ever gets approved or not just isn't that significant.
There is a big difference in the multiple between a 2% grower and a 9% grower and as soon as the analysts can get beyond the Lipitor expiry, you will see a big increase in the multiple for this stock.
That's why I'm so bullish. You just aren't going to see a top-notch 9% noncyclical blue chip at seven times earnings. At least twelve times is more like it and that multiple applied to at least $2.35 in 2013 earnings results in $28.20. Discount that back to the present and you get what the stock should really be selling at now.
Pfizer retains full pricing flexibility at least domestically and competition is getting LESS severe because of all the combinations and acquisitions.
A company like BMY is already selling for more than 13 times expected 2013 earnings of $1.90. And they still are saddled with big expiries through 2015. There isn't a reason in the world why PFE with 20% or more EPS than BMY will have in 2013 should be selling for just 60% of what they are.
Wake up and recognize the incredible value in this stock and what this company already has instead of emphasizing every $1B pipeline drug.
By the way, I am NOT factoring in Bapi at all into my calculations. It's great if the drug makes it but I'm not at all counting on it.
I look at big pharma these days as a mundane, unexciting, grind-it-out business.
Gone are the days of 60 multiples and palpable excitement over Viagra and such.
But size and stability and being a cash cow should still be rewarded in the marketplace - maybe not with a 60 multiple but at least a twelve. And that's just what I'm expecting. I see this as close to a $30 stock within just a few years and I have the methods to fully capitalize on that probability.
Chrtty..You should not be so adamant and so BULLISH. Face the fact that PFE has a lot more competition now and they took up a big debt in buying WYE and going to have tough time getting FDA's new approvals for Alzheimer and cancer drugs because of the safety issue, and not to mention they will be losing patent protection on their blockbuster drugs Lipitor and Viagra next year. Also noone knows how the new Health Care Reform that just passed will affect the drug companies.
I see PFE going NO higher than $20. This might be possible only if they increase the dividend and beat the estimates consistently.
Sorry, it is easier for me to rant at the darkness than to light a single candle.
I am quite happy in my ignorance, and I am quite firm on that.
I will not change my mind.
It's my way or the highway.
> If Irving's story was a total fantasy, instructors with Masters degrees from good schools would have known and wouldn't have taught that stuff.
You should read this:
Do something to reduce your ignorance, rather than denying it.
There is really NO place here for personal attacks. People are entitled to their opinions and beliefs whether right or wrong.
I have been here since march 2009 and have seen Alan always bullish on PFE.I don't think he is right and he can't seem to think rationally but he does make his case and he is entitled to his opinion. While more than 80% here are bearish on PFE and some of you are always attacking Alan, whether it is PFE related or anything else, which I don't think is FAIR.
I am neither bearish nor bullish on PFE. I made some mistakes by buying at $19 and then @$17, but I made that all up by buying a lot more in $14 and $15 and writing naked puts ane covered calls and getting dividends.I think it will take a long long time for PFE to get to $25. The best hope for it is to get to $20, if Kindler and his management does something right and dividend goes up in December,2010 and they beat WS estimates and make one or two great but smaller acquisitions.
My 2 cents worth here....
No personal attacks?
This from the pompous, self-important, inflated buffoon poster who attacked those who were right about PFE, while you were dreadfully wrong, as "idiot boys", when they warned you against buying PFE at $19, $18, $17 & $16?