> Especially not now at THESE valuations
Re: Odds Are That PFE Will Break $25 Tomorrow (20 Ratings) 27-Feb-07 10:21 pm
I'm not going to lose any sleep if after feeling that the stock would go no lower than $25 it turns out that something like $24.80 ended up being the closing low. If I'm off the mark, it isn't by very much.
This is the time for aggression - not timidity.
Is more than $10.00 "much?"
If today follows as the futures indicate it would have been a great time for Chartnuts to follow his belief that PFE would fall back and sell his long calls and even if he didn't buy PUTs he could have bought the leaps back cheaper.
They certainly don't happen to Pfizer every year. Especially not now at THESE valuations and with them being so much bigger and better-diversified.
This is a brand new ballgame. You stick with your ten-year charts while I continue the business of becoming a self-made Pfizer options millionaire within two-and-a-half years.
It doesn't matter what you imagine the reasons are. The fact is that big crashes, supposedly from "once in a lifetime events", occur every single year.
Keep ignoring reality & making lame excuses & keep losing, lying loser loon.
The huge 2005 decline came from concerns that the company could lose its two biggest franchises - Lipitor and Cox-2 - and then there was bad Viagra news to boot. You wouldn't see that kind of combination more than once in a lifetime.
It took a TRIPLE dose of negative news to do the trick in 2005 with the stock starting out at 14.3 times earnings (EPS that year of $2.02 and a 6/23/05 close of $28.90) and a dividend yield at the high of just 3.4% (76cents a share). The three bad-news items were:
1) Reports that Viagra was causing blindness in some men - reported in late June)
2) The reneging on Oct. 20 of previously-optimistic Lipitor growth forecasts made in April. Management wanted to give shareholders a little good news in April to offset the awful news that the FDA was asking the company to remove Bextra off the shelves after an Advisory Committee had recommended that the drug remained on the market. So management stretched to come up with an optimistic Lipitor forecast that was just too optimistic and they had to renege six months later with the stock taking a 15% pratfoll.
3) Mounting fears in early December that the company could lose the domestic Lipitor patent case against Ranbaxy at a time when the verdict was imminent.
WHAT AN ANOMALOUS YEAR!
The only other decline of this magnitude was indeed the January-July period of this year and that was totally irrational as there just wasn't sufficient bad news to account for such a tank job.
How many Pfizer collapses have there been starting from single-digit PE's and with dividend yields of 4% or more?
There has been exactly ONE in Pfizer's history - the one in 2010 that took the stock down 30% from $20 to $14 without much adverse happening of a company-specific nature and without there being a full-fledged bear market either.
I'm always going to lose big when there is that kind of irrationality and sure enough, this time was no execption - I lost a cool quarter million from the January 20 high to the July 2 close.
But I have now recovered half the losses and Pfizer has a full head of steam behind it.