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  • rhizodonthibberti rhizodonthibberti Sep 11, 2010 4:04 PM Flag

    Nate Silver sets odds of GOP winning House at 2/3,

    but only one in four for the Senate.

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

    IMO odds for House are 75% & Senate 50%, with 57 House & ten Senate seats likeliest outcomes.

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    • It would be over your head. How about two terms as President of my county Young Republicans. Eight years as precinct comittee man, delegate to county convention and delegate to State Presidential convention and years as a sustaining member of the RNC. Also, many years canvasing precincts.

      I find your total lack of understanding of the political process truly amazing.

    • It's a lot more truthful to simply say that the GOP will re-take the House and leave it at that.

    • Eight or nine seats is expected but ten is a stretch.

    • He would be 78 when his term was up if reelected and many many Senators have served well beyond that age.

    • I agree, Republicans will take the House and have a long shot at the Senate. The normal breakdown is about a third always vote Republican and about a third always vote Democrat. My only point is that getting 80% of the third remaining is going to be difficult and I will be surprised based on my experience. I would expect at least a third of those that are independant will go for the Dems. Make no mistake, some Democrats are going to win.

      What I want is a veto proof Congress but is just isn't going to happen.

    • hillary_lickz_bush hillary_lickz_bush Sep 11, 2010 8:37 PM Flag

      IMO it is possible to get 80% of Independents who actually vote (usually around 20% of all voters, but higher now, maybe even 30%). LBJ did. FDR did.

      Reagan came close, back when Democrat registration was higher than now.

      Nothing is ever in the bag until all the votes have been counted, & lately not even then.

      But barring Oct surprises, GOP will retake the House & has a good shot at the Senate.

    • In 1984 Reagan received 59% of the popular vote. Mondale about 40%. I am not saying a candidate can not receive 80% of the remainder but 80% is a stretch. Even Reagan failed to receive 60% total but it has been done in a few cases. In the electoral count, Reagan destroyed Mondale.

      As an active Republican for 48 years I can say we are in the best shape I have seen in years and our leadership is doing an excellent job fund raising and organizing precincts. However, I have no illusions that this thing is in the bag and I don't believe it is possible to get 80% of anything. I do wish it were true.

    • hillary_lickz_bush hillary_lickz_bush Sep 11, 2010 8:17 PM Flag

      Dem-leaning Independents may simply not vote.

      Same for moderate Dems & even some disgusted, disappointed liberals.

      Turnout in Democrat primaries was the lowest ever, less than in GOP contests.

      IMO, vote in presidential races is usually around 40-40, with the 20% Indies making the decision. For Reagan in '84, they nearly all swung GOP, along with many Democrats.

    • SO!??doesn't mean nothing,nancy.
      it's what the shlomos ilk would want.if joe makes it or not.high in legal powers,and feeding it for generations in my humble opinion;)LOL.

    • That's most-assuredly a second-rate committee: - what Senator really aspires to be the chairman of THAT committee?

      He would certainly be offered a higher-profile chairmanship than that by the GOP were he to switch.

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