As always, you're totally wrong. The Dow lost almost as much in 1937-8 as in 2007-9, only more quickly. Then after attempted failed rebounds, it suffered further decline to a lower low in 1942. There is every reason to think that 2007-12 will resemble the 1937-42 period. The Dow & economy may well double dip, whether from continued financial crisis or other causes.
<<A credit-crunch crisis is realistically the ONLY kind of crisis that coule cause something like GE to fall from $42 to $6 or to cause Buffett's company to lose 55%, etc>>.
If somebody had asked you 3 years ago what could cause such declines, you would have had no idea. You similarly have no idea of what else could do the same. I am most concerned about a combination of things: for example, a rapid rise in rates due to a lack of confidence in the falling dollar amid increasing deficits, coming at the same time as a major international event and while employment and housing keep declining. I don 't claim to know all the conceivable scenarios. Nobody does. But the above hypothetical would result in major declines, especially if coupled with increased banking losses both in the U.S. and in Europe. Technical breaches would quickly trigger huge selling. You completely fail to recognize the cascading phenomenon that COULD lead to rapid losses. Assuming that we've seen the worst is downright naive.
I'm not predicting disaster, I remain in the market but with more than my usual diversification, about 15% in cash, hedges and minimal leverage.
In June 2007 he said this:
Re: Another day, another lower low for PFE! 19-Jun-06 07:15 pm
...This company is just not going to be allowed to yield something like 4.7%.
In July 2007 he also said this:
Re: Milo, your bet's looking good! Already 65% of the way 13-Jun-07 08:25 pm
There's no "traditionally" about it. The past three years it just so happens there were major travesties the second half (adverse Celebrex test in 2004, the yanking of estimates in 2005 and Torcetrapib failure in 2006).
There's nothing apparent in the way of travesties in 2007. No optimistic forecasts and no huge drugs under development that could fail. Any travesty this year would have to come completely out of the blue. There would be little reason for an investor to expect any such thing.
You saw the lows this year on March 5 with the $24.70 close. Nothing resembling that will be seen. EVER!
In November 2007 he said this:
Re: look at XOMA 30-Nov-07 01:13 am
December 17 is Visine Day - when I get the red out for good.
On June 3, 2008 chrt13 said:
After talking with Investor Relations, I decided to get out 3-Jun-08 11:30 am
I called PFE Investor Relations earlier this morning to see just what was what with the dividend, domestic cash, etc. The IR manager Jennifer Davis is out of the office until tomorrow so I talked with her assistant Suzanne. She seemed pretty knowledgeable about the situation and what the WSJ was talking about.
It appears that for all of PFE being a cash cow, they are not that much of a cash cow in generating DOMESTIC Free Cash Flow which is critical to the payment of dividends.
Their tax setup is such that even though the profit margin is much better in the U.S. than abroad, for tax purposes a lot of the profits is shown as being overseas instead; that allows the company to pay the low overall tax rate that they do.
All of the repatriated funds from 2005 have already been used essentially for dividend payments since then and to make the stock buybacks that they did. That came as quite a surprise to me needless to say.
The company IS committed to maintaining the dividend at least at the current $1.28 per year and they very well may raise the dividend. However, unlike in the past, they are unwilling to COMMIT to maintaining their 41-year policy of raising the dividend each year.
They can still repatriate funds from higher-tax countries to pay the dividend they want to and they have been doing this in the past. They can also borrow, transfer some assets around for tax purposes and the like.
However, the idea that domestic Free Cash Flow makes up 60% of company Free Cash Flow just isn't true - there's a big difference between what is officially generated overseas versus domestically and unfortunately, most of it happens to be overseas.
While up to now I have been extremely bullish on PFE and still think the stock is very much undervalued, it's now kind of a crapshoot as to what institutional investors will think about the dividend and domestic cash situation.
I still have a few naked puts such as the Jan. 20's but I did sell out over 80% of my holdings this morning as well as the holdings of those whose portfolios I'm looking after.
It looks like the total losses that I incurred are in the 180K to 181K area - I'll have an update on that after the market closes.
A credit-crunch crisis is realistically the ONLY kind of crisis that coule cause something like GE to fall from $42 to $6 or to cause Buffett's company to lose 55%, etc.
Over time, there have been all kinds of external crises - including such as the outbreak of World War II, the fall of Frnace, the Cuban Missile crisis, 9/11, etc. None of those kinds of events came remotely close to causing the kind of carnage seen during the recent crash. That was the second-worst crash in the 114-year-old history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average; exceeded ONLY by the big one in 1929-32 which of course was the LAST time there was such a credit crunch replete with runs on banks, etc.
You make a HUGE mistake by not realizing just how unique this crqsh really was and just assuming that something like Israel attacking Iran, etc. could cause anything on the same scale of what was seen in 2008.
i don't live here goldie.charty does.LOL.
i'm only here to correct his bullsh@t whenever i can,and tell him that he's a big LIAR and a fake.a pumper indeed.
pimps do a better job than this jerk,LOL.
avatar u seem to find alan stil amusing,i find him BORING.redundant and a waste of life and it is short..carry on for the sake of phe board.....goldie will be back but he aint worth her time .,, later smie emoticon