I didn't say it was a done deal. You did. However I have to admit, if I were a betting man, the odds are much better with MRK than it was with PFE in successfully launching this new drug. PFE R&D is clueless and unfortunately, the rest of the world with the exception of you realizes this fact. This is the main reason why PFE stock is a POS. You don't count because everyone on this board knows that you are totally delusional. By comparison you make the legendary Don Quioxte who charged windmills with his trusty lance appear totally rational.
MRK had good success with its R & D in 2006 and 2007 when in rapid-fire order they launched Gardasil, Januvia and Isentress. Of course, PFE had similar success in 2005/2006 with its quartet of Macugen (state of the art at the time), Lyrica, Sutent and Chantix.
However, after about mid-2007, MRK couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. I remember in late 2007 when they came out with an Analysts Day that featured seven high-profile drugs. Barbara Ryan at the time said that she was "impressed" with that pipeline.
Well, I'm here to tell you that every last one of those seven drugs failed to make it. R & D successes seem to have streaks and MRK suddenly turned every bit as cold as PFE has been the last few years.
But PFE is picking up and now has TWO very promising drugs of its own in Crizotinib and Tasocitinib that has proven itself in mid and late-stage clinical trials.
Most of the Pfizer drugs that did NOT make it failed in LATE-stage trials - drugs like Indiplon, Torcetrapib, the Coley cancer drug, Sutent in various cancer tests, etc.
I give almost NO weight to a MRK drug that is successful in early-stage testing. And even if this one does succeed, it's going to have to compete with Lipitor. Insurers are going to be VERY reluctant to pay full prices when Lipitor is going to be available for a quarter of the price it sells at now.
The HDL market is quite small compared with the LDL market. The current HDL medicine now, Niaspan (which is what I use) isn't even a blockbuster.
I'm sorry but I just don't see humongous potential for the MRK drug - not with generic Lipitor coupled with a relatively-small HDL market.
Let others get excited about the MRK drug. I love Pfizer and I'm sticking with it until it makes a self-made options millionaire out of me.