After the patent cliff ends in just a couple of years, Pfizer's growth will come from such normal additive factors as nice domestic price hikes, population growth, expansion into developing countries, new inlicensing agreements, small acquisitions and new drug approvals. Notice that new drug approvals are just ONE of a number of additive factors. Once over the patent cliff, there will be little to take away from all the additive factors. Stock buybacks will add to share growth as well.
So very nice earnings growth after the patent cliff is virtually assured regardless of the pipeline. They do have a number of potential home runs in the pipeline but even if every one fails, there are still so many additive factors and so few losses to expirations in a few years that earnings can't help but grow nicely.
Analysts are way too tunnel-visioned about pipeline and they fail to consider all of the other positive factors that occur naturally in any year.
In the past, all of the big, clustered patent expiration losses have negated all of the positive effects. But once that stops, all those positive effects will be seen on the bottom line.