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Pfizer Inc. Message Board

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  • fizrwinnr11 fizrwinnr11 Jan 18, 2011 11:34 PM Flag

    Who will do better in 2011?

    I'm not basing my estimate on YTD returns because if I did that, I'd say that I'd be up by over 250% for 2011. Not counting smaller stock holdings, I started the year with $262,185 in net Pfizer holdings and a naked put portfolio valued at $121,720. But as of today's close, my net Pfizer holdings are $298,310 (up $36,125 or 13.8%) and the put portfolio is now worth $128,465 (up $6,745 or 5.5%). The combined strategies have gone from $383,905 to today's $426,775, a jump of $42,870 or 11.2%. By comparison, PFE is up 5.0% for 2011 to date, the Dow is up 2.3%, the S & P is up 2.9%, the Nasdaq Composite is up 4.3% and even AAPL's gain at about 8% is well below my percentage gains.

    No - my estimate is based strictly on four points for Pfizer at 56K a point from the starting point of $17.51 on the stock at year-end 2010. Add 25K minimum from the put-writing portfolio and presto you're at 249K. That's all it takes. Pretty much of a mortal lock I would say - especially if the low for the year doesn't go below the low 17's.

    I'm simply assuming that Pfizer Closing Range Theory which has worked WITHOUT EXCEPTION at least the last 29 years will work for a 30th year. That's not exactly pie-in-the-sky.

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    • A 250K profit on the two combined strategies that were worth 384K at year-end 2010 would mean a 65% return. It's next to impossible to see anything resembling that kind of return on a DIVERSIFIED portfolio.

      But for a CONCENTRATED portfolio using SUPERIOR OPTIONS METHODS, it is indeed possible to earn such a return and in 2011 I fully expect to do so. Keep in mind that the return includes the MUCH safer strategy in the naked put-writing portfolio but even that one will earn 25% or more for calendar 2011 and 40% or more for the fiscal year 9/16/10 through 9/15/11 on those holdings.

      With a return to date of 11.2%, I'm over 1/6 of the way to my expectation of 65% or more for 2011.

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