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Pfizer Inc. Message Board

  • fizrwinnr11 fizrwinnr11 Feb 7, 2011 12:10 PM Flag

    Today was the acid test for my new RSI 74-76 stonewall theory

    The stock began the day at RSI 75.3, well into STONEWALL territory. What would the stock do if the market as a whole happened to move substantially higher as indeed happened?

    Would the market strength be sufficient to carry Pfizer well beyond RSI 76 or was that stone wall really a STONE WALL?

    I think that the verdict is in.

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    • No verdict is in. You used to talk about RSIs at 70 and lower as presaging a fall. We saw how well that worked.

      Today is a data point in your favor. Many more would be needed to be meaningful. Something is pushing Pfe down today. It may be the RSI, but it may also be some newsletter questioning last week's huge rise on not so special earnings, or pharma in general. Some other pharma stocks, notably Abt and Jnj are also down, despite the market being up nicely, while Mrk is only up slightly. So something is going on and I won't just assume that it is the RSI whose level you keep raising to pick a point when it becomes a meaningful predictor.

    • You used to say that readings in the 60s presaged a fall. At some point you might purely accidentally be right.

    • There are two different posts and two different time frames involved. And as I just posted, the lofty level of RSI 68.6 heading into pre-dividend week DID prevent the stock from going materially higher until earnings.

      Because of that lofty RSI, the most-reliable rally in any quarter, the pre-dividend-week rally simply didn't materialize this time. I'm not considering the earnings release day which is technically part of pre-dividend week.

      In summary, in the almost 27 months between May 2007 and late July 2009, RSI was indeed nosebleed territory and not a single Pfizer rally during that time frame materially exceeded that level.

      As for the recent "lofty level" thing, the level was lofty enough to completely shut down what normally is the most reliable rally period of any quarter - the pre-dividend rally.

      It looks like more crow for you, octo man.

    • 60- nosebleed
      64- straw wall nosebleed
      66- stick wall nosebleed
      68- stonewall nosebleed
      70- STONEWALL nosebleed
      74- SUPER STONEWALL nosebleed
      78- NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST nosebleed

      Facts are stubborn things.


      The above classifications are subject to change.

    • Here is a re-post of exactly how Pfizer performed during pre-dividend week, normally the most-reliable rally period of the quarter. I am also showing the S & P closes:


      $18.47 on 1/25 (S & P 1,291)
      $18.36 on 1/26 (S & P 1,297)
      $18.48 on 1/27 (S & P 1,300)
      $18.15 on 1/28 (S & P 1,276)
      $18.22 on 1/31 (S & P 1,286)


      During that period, Pfizer lost 1.4% while the S & P 500 was losing 0.4%. It's the first pre-dividend week in memory where the stock UNDERPERFORMED the market.

      But I wasn't all that surprised as I had prominently mentioned that the RSI was at a lofty level entering pre-dividend week and that just isn't a recipe for great further gains.

      The lofty RSI had the stock ill set up for further immediate gains even entering pre-divieend week and sure enough we didn't get them.

      I don't think I could offer much more conclusive proof than this as to just how powerful high RSI readings are in holding back the stock.

    • The problem is the moron assumes the RSI controls the price of a stock, rather than the RSI simply showing what the strength of the stock hs been.

      I wonder if he understands what the RSI of the ^IXIC was for the period from August 1998 to January, 2000. Record highs day after day and month over month for about 5 quarters.

      RSI is nothing but a technical indicator and has nothing to do with the fundmentals.

    • > You promised to rest your case.


      charty uses words and phrases, but like a parrot, he doesn't understand them.

    • zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    • That wasn't Pebbs, it was me. Don't you get tired of being the second most frequent poster about nothing at all?

    • Here is an excerpt from your post:


      a 68.6 "lofty level" would prevent higher prices -- was proved wrong,



      It was proven RIGHT! I said at the time that the RSI was lofty enough to prevent the stock from going much higher in the immediate term. I said NOTHING about the stock going higher after the RSI had dived back to RSI 53.8 which indeed it saw two sessions prior to earnings.

      It wasn't hotpanera2 that was right - it was yours truly who was right. The RSI was lofty enough heading into pre-dividend week to keep the stock from going appreciably higher before earnings. Indeed, Pfizer actually UNDERPERFOPMED the market by 1% before earnings came out and that is something I had NEVER seen before.

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