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Pfizer Inc. Message Board

  • responding_to responding_to Mar 2, 2011 9:17 PM Flag

    expiration schedule fallacy

    A lazy investor may look at the list of "key" patent expirations and assume those were all the patent expirations that occur over the next 10 years. Anyone interested in the truth would look beyond this and do some research. What one will find is out of the top 35 drugs representing about 80% of major biopharma revenues, only 10% will still have patent protection beyond 2021. Applying that same ratio to lower producing drugs leaves only some $6B of 2010 revenues still under patent protection beyond 2021. This is not unusual, but the norm. It highlights the fact the new drug development is the only thing that matters in this business.

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    • I'll try and remember what a "shut-in" I am when in Japan about five weeks from now and when I'm on the shores of Hudson Bay staring at the migrating polar bears in about seven months.

      Just how "shut in" do you think I could have been when I visited Israel five months ago and had to do all that walking in Jerusalem up and down hills and all as it was the Sabbath and all means of tansportation was shut down - including even the tour bus.

    • ilaughatallthewrongjokes ilaughatallthewrongjokes Mar 11, 2011 4:50 PM Flag

      I think he is a 'shut-in' and because of the way he is and acts, was 'shut-out' by all people IRL that ever came in contact with him.

      Ironic that he shunned computers and technology, yet in the end, became his only means of interaction with the human race.

      For something that is not 'his bag', he seems to rely upon it for what is left of his miserasble existence in life. Such that that is.

      ilaugh

    • ilaughatallthewrongjokes ilaughatallthewrongjokes Mar 11, 2011 4:38 PM Flag

      I'm_just_saying'..

      This character does not have anything to do but sit in front of his computer all day and all night long.

      His existence is more in CS than IRL. In CS with that kind of time on one's hands, they can, if they have a mind to, concoct just about anything they want.

      And present it in CS as real.

      That is why, I believe, that in CS, as IRL, one's credibility is very important. That is, if you want to be taken seriously by anyone IRL or in CS.

      He has none. He lost his credibility years ago and while on the TYC board. Along with his money since then.

      ilaugh

    • You're right.

      I don't know.

      Odds are good that Alan is institutionalized.

    • ilaughatallthewrongjokes ilaughatallthewrongjokes Mar 11, 2011 4:23 PM Flag

      What makes you think he has ever been there?

      Is it because he says so?

      He says he has been to many places and on vacation.

      From what (little) I have read of any of his vaca trips, Iceland for example, I could have found out about doing an internet search.

      His trip reports are very generic and remind me of info I could find reading Fodors.

      IOWs, I don't beleive he has 'travelled' anywhere other than via cyberspace.

      Remember: we are dealing with something with mental issues (put mildly) and is a self-admitted liar.

      ilaugh

    • You had to search Google to discover on which continent Israel resides?

      Can anyone possibly be so dumb, after having been there?

      When did you learn how to Google, anyway?

    • "Simple math"...

      Obviously Coolcatnip must be Chrt13!

      It's the syntax, stupid!

    • Russell and Dennis Gartman:
      -------------------------------------------
      Russell:

      My conclusion -- if wealthy La Jolla is in trouble, then everybody is in trouble.

      From Friday's Investor's Business Daily -- "ObamaCare -- the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act" -- was pushed through the Senate in 2009 through backroom deal-making and special perks for fence-sitting senators. The premise was that it would save both patients and the nation billions of dollars. But updated estimates now suggest the takeovers of health care will cost the country about $2 trillion over the next decade while disrupting and making more costly existing health plans.

      The following is courtesy of my pen-pal, the one and only Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter.

      "Let's get this straight. We're going to be 'gifted' with a health care plan we are forced to purchase and fined if we don't, which purportedly covers at least ten million more people without adding a single new doctor, but provides for 16,000 new IRS agents, written by a committee whose chairman says he doesn't understand it, passed by a Congress that didn't read it but exempted themselves from it, and signed by a president who smokes, with funding administered by a treasury chief who didn't pay his taxes, for which we'll be taxed for four years before any benefits take effect, by a government which has already bankrupted Social Security and Medicare, all to be overseen by a surgeon general who is obese, and financed by a country that's broke!!

      WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG?"

    • .....Richard Russell


      I've gone over this before, but the cover of the current Bloomberg Businessweek put it so starkly, that I decided to discuss the whole picture again.

      The cover of the magazine reads, "Would You Invest In a Company that lost $2 trillion last year, and has a net worth of a negative $44 trillion?"

      And what is this company? Why, it's USA Inc. The article is written by the well-known stock analyst, Mary Meeker. She writes about the US's finances as though the US was a corporation.

      Mary writes, "Imagine no Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corp or Coast Guard, no federal courts or prisons, no national park service, no food and drug administration, no embassies, no salaries for Congress. That's what it would take to finance the budget by 2025 and still pay interest on America's debts, without either raising revenues or reducing entitlement growth. That's certainly not a recognizable America."

      Later in the article, Meeker notes that the nation's problem is not a revenue problem, it's a SPENDING problem. She writes, "Simple math says that balancing the budget purely by raising taxes would require doubling rates across the board, which would kill growth."

      So as I see it, what's coming up is a massive cut-back in federal (plus states and municipalities and cities) spending.

      This is the stark and painful picture of the years ahead.

    • With an attitude like that, the Meekers of the world shall never inherit the earth.

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PFE
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