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Pfizer Inc. Message Board

  • moses2111 moses2111 May 8, 2011 3:10 PM Flag

    A poem read at today's Mothers' Day Remembrance ceremony

    The title is "When Death Comes" by Mary Oliver. the last few lines are as follows:

    When it's over, I don't want to wonder if I have made of my life something particular and real.

    I don't want to find myself sighing and frightened or full of argument.

    I don't want to end up simply having visited this world.

    A year ago at this time, I was just another 67-year-old man living out his remaining years without a lot of purpose.

    But now I definitely feel I have a calling; something important that remains for me to do.

    And that of course would be to teach as many seniors as possible how to safely earn 15% and more on their savings instead of 3%.

    I will see if I can't get sponsored for a brokers' license so that I can speak at investment seminars and I might spend 40K or 50K of my money to take an MBA program in order to write a Master's dissertation on what I am doing with my naked put strategy. I also intend to write a book on the subject.

    It will be my gift to posterity.

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    • For the most part, others weren't panicking that day and the stock was only down about 15 cents.

      The company had just made an important presentation at a healthcare conference and the stock remained fairly firm most of that day despite the WSJ article.

      But I knew after talking with Investor Relations just how negative the situation was and I chose to get out of most of my holdings right then and there.

      The stock was to lose 10% of its value from there over the next two weeks.

    • > I do surprisingly little trading on the most panicky of days.

      The most shocking thing that Investor Relations told me 5-Jun-08 03:11 am

      What REALLY caused me to push the panic button when I rarely do that was when I learned that most of that $36.9B in repatriated funds from 2005 is already gone.

      Already gone when there haven't even been any acquisitions yet and expenses have certainly not been out of the ordinary.

      No way would most of that money already be gone in less than three years unless PFE really was earning only a tiny fraction of its overall $ree Cash Flow from domestic sources.

      Before the WSJ article, the question was whether the funds were essentially fungible, how many years it would last (8, 10, 12, 15, etc) and so forth. I don't think a soul here would have dreamed that most of it is already GONE even before the company has done much in the way of acquisitions.

      Learning that most of that $36.9B is already gone was the shocker of shockers for me. There's just no rationalizing the implications of that.

      After talking with Investor Relations, I decided to get out 3-Jun-08 11:30 am

      I called PFE Investor Relations earlier this morning to see just what was what with the dividend, domestic cash, etc. The IR manager Jennifer Davis is out of the office until tomorrow so I talked with her assistant Suzanne. She seemed pretty knowledgeable about the situation and what the WSJ was talking about.

      It appears that for all of PFE being a cash cow, they are not that much of a cash cow in generating DOMESTIC Free Cash Flow which is critical to the payment of dividends.

      Their tax setup is such that even though the profit margin is much better in the U.S. than abroad, for tax purposes a lot of the profits is shown as being overseas instead; that allows the company to pay the low overall tax rate that they do.

      All of the repatriated funds from 2005 have already been used essentially for dividend payments since then and to make the stock buybacks that they did. That came as quite a surprise to me needless to say.

      The company IS committed to maintaining the dividend at least at the current $1.28 per year and they very well may raise the dividend. However, unlike in the past, they are unwilling to COMMIT to maintaining their 41-year policy of raising the dividend each year.

      They can still repatriate funds from higher-tax countries to pay the dividend they want to and they have been doing this in the past. They can also borrow, transfer some assets around for tax purposes and the like.

      However, the idea that domestic Free Cash Flow makes up 60% of company Free Cash Flow just isn't true - there's a big difference between what is officially generated overseas versus domestically and unfortunately, most of it happens to be overseas.

      While up to now I have been extremely bullish on PFE and still think the stock is very much undervalued, it's now kind of a crapshoot as to what institutional investors will think about the dividend and domestic cash situation.

      I still have a few naked puts such as the Jan. 20's but I did sell out over 80% of my holdings this morning as well as the holdings of those whose portfolios I'm looking after.

      It looks like the total losses that I incurred are in the 180K to 181K area - I'll have an update on that after the market closes.


    • Any source is better than relying on your chubby hubby Alan's advice, Ruffnuts.

    • this is his, "oh yeah, I'll show you"..teenaged obstinance

    • Nobody will ever accuse you of doing any research on the matter.

      Because with my being short 90 contracts of the 15-strike naked puts expiring in Jan. 2012, the open interest as you can see is 124,120.

      Do you really think that 90 is an inordinate percentage of 124,120? Let's see now - that works out to be about seven HUNDREDTHS of ONE percent.

      Puts Bid Ask Last Change Vol Op Int

      15.0 Put 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.00 2,359 124,120

    • zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    • If I'm not doing a spread by phone, as soon as I get a fill on the buy side, I would immediately put the sell order in for the lower-strike options a year out.

      These hardly move penny-for-penny with the stock. If Pfizer is at $16.70 and I have bought back the 15's expiring in Jan. 2012 and am trying to sell the 12.50's for Jan. 2013, the stock can easily move three or four cents and the 12.50's out over a year will move by a penny. There's a limit as to how much I get screwed - especially if I do the trades during lunchtime back east when the activity won't be as hectic.

      Sorry but what I do is WAY too advantageous to worry about the once-ina-blue moon when I may have to accept a little bit less on my rollouts. As I said, it just doesn't matter too much to the price of 12.50-strike options whether Pfizer is at $16.72 or whether it's at $16.62.

    • they will be along in dribs and drabs all thru the day, he has at least 65-100 handles thru Yahoo Small Business Email accounts 10 Mailboxes[handles] for $9.95 a month unlimited number of subscriptions, could have 10 accounts and 100 aliases for a $100 a month...tac deductible against cap gains as a Business expense..

    • this is lamo wienner'12's idea of fun...

    • zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

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