Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Pfizer Inc. Message Board

  • alpha_kai_omega alpha_kai_omega Jun 7, 2011 9:01 PM Flag

    Alan, instead of asserting it can't possibly happen,

     

    please answer the repeated questions as to what losses you'd suffer if the Dow fell to 6000, taking PFE down to $10-11 with it, given your present bullish naked put & other options positions?

    Why won't you let the poor innocents know what the potential risks are so that they can do the kind of basic analysis of which you're incapable?

    You owe it to them, & you've promised to answer all reasonable questions.

    This topic is deleted.
    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • > I cancelled it shortly AFTER the onset of the sub-prime slime.


      No, you did not.


      You are simply looking even more foolish to make such a claim.

    • The bet didn't last as I cancelled it shortly AFTER the onset of the sub-prime slime. Pfizer was still a $26 stock in mid-July of 2007 but both Pfizer and the market really started tanking thereafter culminating in a world-wide panic on Aug. 16 of that year. That was dramatically reversed when the Fed suddenly cut interest rates by 75 basis points, a truly bold step at the time.

      There then ensued an eight-week rally to new highs before the market started collapsing. But during the period from mid-July to mid-August, the market really started falling apart and Pfizer fell as low as the mid-23's.

    • > Within six weeks of that post, Bear Stearns announced that two of its hedge funds were severely underwater.


      So, you admit that it hadn't even started when you welshed on that bet.


      Good to finally see you admit to at least one case of your cheating and dishonesty.

    • > I regard June 20 or so of 2007 to be the precursor to the crash


      LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL!


      You honestly cannot remember what you said the reason was at the time?

      You have dementia.

    • Within six weeks of that post, Bear Stearns announced that two of its hedge funds were severely underwater.

      That ushered in the period of the sub-prime slime which turned out to be the precursor to the once-in-a-lifetime crash.

      I cancelled the bet and ended up giving myself a Blanket Mulligan for anything that didn't pan out because of the crash.

      Had the bet been made in 2005 or 2006 it would have been a different story. But not within just weeks of the onset of the crash. I regard June 20 or so of 2007 to be the precursor to the crash even though the market did come back to make a final high in early October before sinking beneath the waves.

    • > No I don't at all remember.


      This should refresh your memory:

      Chartnuts made a bet on May 15:

      *************************************************
      Re: Chartnuts, will you leave the board immediately if $25 15-May-07 05:56 pm

      The bet is on then. $25.00 you're gone, $30.00 I'm gone.

      I'm counting on an overall market pull-back, but time will tell.

      milodonharlana
      ************************************************



      chartnuts confirmed the bet on May 28:

      ************************************************
      Re: Chartweasel deleted his own posts to avoid Peb's 28-May-07 02:25 pm

      There's no "worming my way out of bets" made this year with Milo and Offtopicposter. Those are almost sure winners for me with Pfizer nicely ahead of schedule. I wouldn't dream of taking those bets back. There's a good chance that by Labor Day it will be good riddance to those two detractors.

      chrt13
      ************************************************



      chartnuts reiterated the bet on June 13:

      *************************************************
      Re: Milo, your bet's looking good! Already 65% of the way 13-Jun-07 06:34 pm

      If Milo is to win the bet, he had better do it in the next five weeks. Because it's certainly not going to happen once that Q2 earnings report comes out around July 20.

      chrt13
      *****************************************************



      On July 18 chrt13 said (note the "again" when he references Force Majuere):

      ***************************************************** *****
      I'm going to have to declard force majeure again 18-Jul-07 08:16 am

      A large change in wholesaler inventory policies to just-in-time seems to account for a huge portion of the disappointing results.

      PFE very likely would have been able to handle even this without danger of going under $25 temporarily had it not been weakened by the Sub-prime mess and today's further news that the two Bear hedge funds will likely fail.

      The bets are off again until Aug. 10.

      chrt13
      ************************************************

      So you can see from the above message of chrt13, he declared Force Majeure THREE times on this one bet!!!!!!!

      chartnuts lost the bet.

      Badly.

      Decisively.

      Clearly.

    • Chartnuts can't handle the truth & can't tell himself or potential poor innocents that he could once again lose 500 to 1000% of his bet.

    • > Why is he still here?


      Because he is a welshing, dishonest person who has no integrity or ethics.

    • Since Alan won't answer, please allow me to reply.

      Current leverage in the naked put & PFE options "plays" is about five to one, slightly less manic that original "superior methods".

      With $500,000 at risk & Alan's promise to get out if PFE ever returns to $11.62 (not that he would have the option, so to speak), his potential loss is about $2.5 million, ie well over twice what the liar claims to be "worth", including his mom's house.

      A huge risk is that PFE could open well below that level & that Alan would be sold out, with losses then more than the loon's net assets.

    • I don't respond to hypotheticals that could now only occur in a true end-of-the-world-threatening scenario.

      Earnings are far far better than in 2009 and just way too good to allow the kind of haircuts that it would take to get the Dow down to 6,000.

      You saw the MILLENNIAL low for Pfizer on March 2, 2009 at $11.62. It was unlikely enough for all the events that caused the crash but then on top of that there were the once-in-a-lifetime events for specifically Pfizer on top of that - such as the dramatic hike in the effective tax rate from 22% to 30%, the halving of the dividend, the complete removal of already-approved Exubera and the severe impairment of Chantix.

      If you put pencil to paper and work out the possibilities of simultaneous occurrence, I don't think that such a combination of adversity would happen once in a thousand years.

      At any rate, if Pfizer ever closes below its 3/2/09 close, I will leave the board IMMEDIATELY. That's how sure I am that it will never happen.

      I did say that I would answer all REASONABLE quesions. But as you well know, what you asked me to respond to just wasn't reasonable.

      • 1 Reply to chrttwelve
      • > At any rate, if Pfizer ever closes below its 3/2/09 close, I will leave the board IMMEDIATELY. That's how sure I am that it will never happen.


        LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL!

        On 30-Nov-07 chrt13 said:

        ===================================
        Re: $29 by 12/31/08 and $31 by 1/31/09 or I leave 30-Nov-07 10:46 am

        I said categorically that there are NO excuses and no force majeure. Pfizer sees $29 by year-end 2008 or I'm gone with the exception of twice-weekly valuation updates. I also must see $31 by 1/31/09 or I'm also gone.

        I told folks to get maniacal on Pfizer when it was at $24.29 and I must be able to see folks that took my advice triple their money by the end of 2008 in order for me to remain on this board.

        Range theory tells me that Pfizer cannot be prevented from busting through $29 resistance before 2008 is out. I'm putting my money, my credibility and my ability to continue posting here on that assertion. Yes - I am that positive that I'm willing to risk having to leave the board - and without really getting much out of this self-imposed wager either.

        Make no mistake about it - 2008 is the year that Pfizer shakes loose and makes small fortunes for properly- leveraged investors.

        chrt13
        ============================================

        chrt13 said quite clearly and precisely, "I said categorically that there are NO excuses and no force majeure. "

        Then he said on 13-Apr-08:

        ============================================
        Re: How my Loser Leaves the Board bets are faring... 13-Apr-08 07:04 pm

        I no longer have a bet with myself. My better half reminded me just what a valuable resource I am here and prevailed on my worse half to declare Force Majeure again for the greater good.

        I never like to argue much with my better half - especially when he displays such wisdom.

        chrt13
        =============================================

        Well, any questions?

    • View More Messages
 
PFE
33.53-0.06(-0.18%)Jun 30 4:00 PMEDT