Alan, instead of asserting it can't possibly happen,
Within six weeks of that post, Bear Stearns announced that two of its hedge funds were severely underwater.
That ushered in the period of the sub-prime slime which turned out to be the precursor to the once-in-a-lifetime crash.
I cancelled the bet and ended up giving myself a Blanket Mulligan for anything that didn't pan out because of the crash.
Had the bet been made in 2005 or 2006 it would have been a different story. But not within just weeks of the onset of the crash. I regard June 20 or so of 2007 to be the precursor to the crash even though the market did come back to make a final high in early October before sinking beneath the waves.