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  • alanisstillhere alanisstillhere Sep 2, 2012 6:07 AM Flag

    Barron's: How the biggest UK bookmaker sees the election

    Explain please, Statistical Stupe, how a poll can be an "outlier" when it has the best record over the past two decades of any political poll in the country, & which has since Aug 11 shown exactly the same trend as RCP's average of polls, namely from Obama up almost five points to now tied, or in most recent polls, Romney leading?

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    • Here's a good point:

      The decisive vote in the matter, according to my sources, was cast by David Axelrod, Obama’s chief political strategist, who argued that the Obamas needed Clinton far more than Clinton needed them. Axelrod had long been aware that things were not going as well for Obama as the mainstream media reported. On the eve of the party’s presidential convention, Democrats had outspent Republicans 4 to 1 and had poured more than $200 million into negative commercials against Mitt Romney, and yet polls showed the race to be a dead heat, with Romney beginning to pull ahead in some critical swing states.

      Read more:

      • 2 Replies to detractor_04
      • After outspending Republicans 4 to 1, Obama hasn't pulled ahead. Now that Romney is the nominee, he will have plenty of new money to spend.

        Things are looking up for America.

      • Even including the outlier Rasmussen and Purple Strategies polls, the simple electoral truth is that Romney doesn't lead in a single one of the ten battleground states shown by Real Clear Politics using polls taken during the last 30 days.

        He did lead in North Carolina including a ridiculous Rasmussen poll showing him to be five points ahead. But that poll was taken on Aug. 1 and is now invalid by virtue of being over 30 days old. If all other North Carolina polls are included, Obama is ahead as he is in every one of the other battleground states.

        So I ask you - just which battleground states is Romney "starting to pull ahead?" Name me even ONE such state. You won't be able to do so because there simply aren't any.

        Facts are stubborn things.

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