Obama is currently at 53 cents in the second of the two propositions. This second one is NOT winner-take-all like the one I quote where Obama is at around 70 cents. In the proposition where he is at 53 cents, the payoff is based on percentage of popular vole. So the market thinks that Obama will win the popular volte 53% to 47%. I think that's a little high - I see it as 52% to 48% or possibly 51.5% to 48.5% excluding the Libertarian candidate.
The two different propositions should not be confused.