Obama regains 55% of the lost ground in the Iowa Electronic Market
My but that was sure a short Romney surge. Here are the midnight closing prices on Obama the last several days:
77.0 on Tuesday
69.0 on Wednesday, the night of the debate
67.0 on Thursday
72.5 on Friday, the day of the monthly jobs numbers
Obama made no serious gaffes in the debate and the fact that he was overly passive isn't nearly enough to lose the election.
A lot of what Romney said may have sounded good but there was really nothing new. In his "five-point economic plan," he said he would "champion small business." I'm not exactly impressed. Then he said that if China cheats on foreign trade regulations he would really crack down. Don't you think that every American president the last three decades has wanted to do that but if that happened, the Chinese might not be so willing to buy our bonds, etc. Idle, unrealistic promises don't carry much weight with yours truly.
Obama is currently at 53 cents in the second of the two propositions. This second one is NOT winner-take-all like the one I quote where Obama is at around 70 cents. In the proposition where he is at 53 cents, the payoff is based on percentage of popular vole. So the market thinks that Obama will win the popular volte 53% to 47%. I think that's a little high - I see it as 52% to 48% or possibly 51.5% to 48.5% excluding the Libertarian candidate.
The two different propositions should not be confused.