Another midnight close in the Iowa Electronic Markets
The close less than a half hour ago was 71.1 cents for Obama. The range in the five days since the debate has been 67.0 low and 72.5 cents high on a closing basis. Romney had his bump right after the debate but has now stalled out and would seem toe out of miracles.
Obama gained today in Rasmussen's three-day tracking poll of likely voters, from Romney up two points to tied, perhaps in response to the bogus unemployment household survey numbers.
But in the seven-day Gallup tracking poll of registered voters, Obama dropped from up three points to tied. That survey still contains pre-debate polling, days when Obama was up five.
The presidential race is tied with a month to go. The next three debates probably won't have the same effect, but Biden & Obama are liable to lose them, because their case for reelection is so weak. And because Biden is an idiot. Palin beat him like a drum, so Ryan should mop the floor with the doddering old fool, who was a young fool when first sent to the Senate 40 years ago.
If the race was really and truly tied, those betting real money in the Iowa Electronic Markets and Intrade wouldn't be laying $70 to win just $30. Gallup and especially Rasmussen are out of touch this year and I think that inability to reach young i-Phone users who greatly favor Obama has a lot to do with it. When it comes to whether gamblers or pollsters are more accurate, I'll go with the gamblers anytime - it isn't even close. Obama should win the election by three to four percentage points or about 4 to 5 million votes. In the electoral college, a 100-vote margin wouldn't at all surprise me as he continues to hold 3 percentage point kind of margins in all key states other than North Carolina.when Rasmussen and Purple Strategies polls are excluded.
The Gallup tracking poll tie is in the three days after the debate. The seven day Gallup still shows Obama up 5 among registered voters. Gallup suddenly started showing Obama move ahead after AG (aka Gestapo Fueher) Holder threatened to shut them down.