I'm using the data based on the proposition of who will garner the majority of the popular vote. The proposition that is 54-46 or thereabouts is NOT a winner-take-all thing at all but instead the payoff is based on percentage of popular volte. If Obama gets 53%, the payoff is 53% of the pool, etc. I don't care in the least about that proposition and consistently cite the other one which is winner-take-all. And as much as Obama is leading in the popular vote, he is doing even better in the electoral college where he continues to have solid 3 to 5-point leads in most of the swing states if the outlier GOP polls such as Rasmussen and Purple Strategies are omitted.
By the way, one of the reasons why Obama''s lead seems to have shrunk lately in the RealClearPolitics consensus is that consensus until recently was based on all polls conducted within the previous 30 days. But now RealClearPolitics shows only four or five of the most-recent polls and wouldn't you know it but so many of these recent polls are indeed from the likes of Rasmussen and other GOP outliers.
But you can't fool the gamblers and at the Iowa Electronic Markets, Intrade, etc, they know what's what.