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  • fizrwinnr11 fizrwinnr11 Oct 10, 2012 12:10 PM Flag

    The hard electoral college arithmetic for Romney

    RealClearPolitics currently shows Obama as having 251 safe votes in the electoral college where he continues to lead in the polls by over five percentage points. There are four battleground states where he leads by between three and five percentage points factoring in all polls in the last 30 days excluding GOP outliers Rasmussen and Purple Strategies. These four states which Romney really can't hop to win are:

    Iowa (06 electoral votes) - Obama by 5.0 percent
    Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Obama by 4.9 percent
    Nevada (06 electoral votes) - Obama by 4.3 percent
    Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Obama by 3.7 percent

    Factoring in these solid Obama-leaning states gives the president 294 votes.

    Romney can only count on 191 electoral votes at this point with these three true battleground states still in question:

    29 electoral votes for Florida (Obama leads by 2.4 percent)
    15 electoral votes for North Carolina Romney leads by 0.1 percent)
    09 electoral votes for Colorado (Obama leads by 1.0 percent)

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • As always, there are so many things wrong with your arithmetic that it's hard to know where to begin.

      1) Those 251 EVs are far from safe. It includes many "leaning Obama" states in which he is still under 50% in the average of polls, most of which are worse than worthless anyway, not least because they were taken before the debates & before the "bumps in the road" of four American murdered in Libya. Besides which, RCP doesn't remove old state polls, as soon it does from the national average.

      2) VA is by no means reliable for Obama. Indeed, one major polling firm has already quit surveying there, along with FL & NC, because it considers it now safe for Romney. It's also absurd to claim that Romney has no hope of Nevada or Ohio, although IA might in fact go for Obama due to its early voting.

      3) States formerly in the "Leans Obama" column are trending toward Romney. Statistical ties now exist not only in OH, but PA & MI. Even NH, which had one 15-point Obama poll recently, is now back in play.

      4) In the four major post-debate polls, Romney is up in all of them by an average of 2.25 points, but by only one in Rasmussen. There goes your insane "outlier" excuse. If he wins by two points nationwide, he can't help but win OH.

      5) At this point, Romney can win with the Solid South, plus OH & any other true tossup state, or by winning another big swing state & NV, CO or NH.

      You're just as idiotic now as ever, Numbers Numbskull.

      • 2 Replies to baalhadad
      • We will see who the numskull is on November 6th. The results will also display as to who has a better grasp of the political arena. The guru should win hands down just like his continuous display of mopping the floor with you.

      • The debate is hardly going to swing Ohio to Romney's column; the auto rescue by Obamq with Romkney being against it is what rules there. If Obama merely holds onto the states where he leads by over five percentage ponts and then carries Ohio and Iowa, it's all over - Romney could win every single other battlefield state and it still wouldn't be enough. Realistically speaking, Romney still has no chance whatsoever.

        Sentiment: Buy

 
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