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  • fizrwinnr11 fizrwinnr11 Oct 13, 2012 12:09 AM Flag

    The hard electoral math revisited

    RealClearPolitics starts out with 201 electoral votes for Obama, 181 for Romney and twelve battleground states involving 156 electoral votes where they have the margin at five points of less for a candidate.

    I start out by awarding Obama Missouri's 10 votes and I also give him North Carolina's 15 since for the most part he has been leading in that state most of the time. That would bring him up to 206 electoral votes where he has been stuck for many weeks now.

    Of RealClearPolitics ten remaining ostensible battleground states, there are three upper Midwest states where Romney is utterly hopeless and has no chance whatsoever. Those states are:

    1) Pennslyvania where Obama leads by 7.9% in polls conducted within the last 30 days excluding GOP outliers Rasmussen and Purple Strategies. The state has 20 electoral votes
    2) Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes where Obama leads by 6.5 percentage points in qualifying polls within the last 30 days.
    3) Michigan's 16 electoral votes where Obama leads by 5.7 percentage points in qualifying polls within the last 30 days.

    Rendering to Caesar that which is surely Caesar's brings the solid Obama electoral vote total to 247.

    The states where Obama leads by over 4 percentage points but not more than 5 where Romney only has a very slight glimmer of hope are:

    1) Ohio's 18 electoral votes where Obama currently is ahead by 4.7% in qualifying polls
    2) Iowa's 6 electoral votes where Obama currently is ahead by 4.8% in qualifying polls.

    So unless Romney can pull a miracle and capture one of the states where Obama leads by 4 or more percentage points, Obama would have 271 electoral votes and would be over the top.

    But Romney's numbers woes don't end there. For there qare three other states where he trails by 3 to 4 points in qualifying polls. They include:

    1) Virginia where Obamqa leads by 3.4% in qualifying polls. The state has 13 electoral votes.
    2) Nevada where Obama leads by 3.4% in qualifying polls. The state has 6 electoral votes.
    3) New Hampshire where Obama leads by 3.0% in the battle for the 4 electoral votes.

    There are just two battlegrund states where Romney is within 3% of Obama in qualifying polls. The are:

    1) Florida where Obama's one-time 3.3% lead has been shaved to 1.8% in quest of the state's 29 electoral votes.
    2) Colorado where Obama's lead is down to a scant 0.6% in qualifying polss when several weeks ago Obama lead by 3.3 percentage points in qualifying polls in the battle for the 9 electoral votes.

    Without a truly major gaffe by Obama in one of the two remaining debates, it's going to be four more years. It's not exactly tough for an analytical numbers man to see clearly what is going on.

    Sentiment: Buy

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