I saw 57.9 today on Intrade. Obama may have gotten some action ahead of upcoming debate.
It's largely all down to OH, although of course there are lots of other ways for Romney to win. But if he carries OH, Obama is out.
If NY, CA, PA, IL, MI & other big states followed the lead of NE & ME, allocating EVs by congressional district, there would never be another Democrat president. Under that system, Romney would win at least 20 of CA's 55 EVs (soon to be fewer, due to white flight from that hellish state).
Intrade is at 61 and Iowa Electronic Market is at 62 for Obama. There has only been a little movement towards Romney the last several days and time is running out. Indeed, probably about 20% of the electorate has already voted.
By the way, when I looked at Intrade earlier in the day, it was at 59.7 and now it's at 61 for Obama.
Do you mean the person who has 271 electoral votes if he merely holds onto states where he leqds by 4% or more in polls taken within the last 30 days excluding GOP outliers Rasmussen and Purple Strategies? Unless Romney can capture one of those states, he can win all of the tossups including Florida and the only way he'll get into the White House is as a tourist.
Only polls taken since Oct 4 matter. In those, Romney is winning more than enough states for victory.
Why would you exclude Rasmussen, the most reliable of all polls, which in some swing states still shows Obama up? Has there been a Purple Strategies poll since the debate? I didn't think so. Besides which, the last thing they are is GOP. The whole point of that survey is its bipartisanship.
Why would you count true outliers & rigged surveys like the PPP Democrat polls, NBC, CBS & CNN but not Rasmussen, far & away the most accurate since the 1990s?
No wonder you are always wrong.
The 2012 map should look like 2004, with the addition of WI & NH for the GOP, ie an over 300 EV runaway. Due to early voting, only IA might switch btw 2004 & 2012.