Superior methods in tracking Obama's margins in battlefield states
As I have done all along, I average out the individual polls taken within the last 30 days after factoring out obvious GOP oultliers Rasmussen and Purple Strategies. Here are Obama's leads now compared with his highest pre-debate margins. The difference is much less than what you might think.
Iowa (06 EV's): Obama +4.8% now, high was 5.0%
Ohio (18 EV's): Obama +4.4% now; high was 5.0%
Nevada (06 EV's): Obama +3.4% now; high was 4.4%
Virginia (13 EV's): Obama + 3.4% now, high was 4.0%
RealClearPolitics currently has Obama with 201 electoral votes in states where he leads by over 5 percentage points but I qlso show him leading by more than that in qualifying polls in these states:
Wisconsin (10 EV's): Obama currently leads by 6.7%
Pennsylvania (20 EV's): Obama currently leads by 6.3%
Michigan (16 EV's): Obama currently leads by 5.8%.
Giving him the above three states pushes his electoral college total from 201 to 247. Adding in the two states where he currently leads by 4.1% to 5.0% brings him to 271 electoral votes and re-election. Adding in the two other states where he leads by over 3.0% would give him 290 electoral votes to 248 for Romney.
The four true tossup states with margins of 3.0% or less in qualifying polls include:
New Hampshire (04 EV's): Obama currently leads by 3.0%
Florida (29 EV's): Obama currently leads by 1.7%, down from a high of 2.7%
Colorado (09 EV's); Obama currently leads by 0.6%
North Carolina (13 EV's): Romney currently leads by 0.1% but only because of an ARG poll that appears to be a real outlier in showing him ahead by 7 percentage points.
RCP says that Obama would have 294 electoral votes if the election were held today. Personally I see well over 300 for Obama.
A number of RCP's "battlefield states" aren't truly battlefield states at all. Is Pennsylvania really a battlefield state when even Rasmussen has Obama up by five? Ditto the likes of Michigan and Wisconsin.
Obama currently has 247 solid electoral votes and Ohio and Iowa alone would give him 271 and the election. The president would seem to have insurmountable leads in those two states
Virginia, Nevada and New Hampshire would also seem to be good Democratic-leaning states barring a major gaffe. Crediting Obama for those two as well puts the electoral college count at 294. And Obama would be held to that only if Romney swept Colorado, Florida and North Carolina, not exactly sure things for him.
As things now stand, polls conducted in the last 30 days excluding GOP outliers Rasmussen and Purple Strategies show Obama to be leading in every on except North Carolina. In that state, he trails by a scant 0.1% and then only because one maverickl poll hin that state shows a Romney lead of 7%. .
Who knows? He takes what has been the most accurate poll for several cycles out and seems to be totally unaware that if you use Real Clear numbers and simpy add the Romney states to the staes he is now leading, you come up with 273 electors. Romney has been on a roll since the first of the month and if the Dems can't stop the trend, Obama is in real trouble. Obama's best hope is to call in sick on the next debate.