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  • baalhadad baalhadad Oct 14, 2012 8:26 PM Flag

    Superior methods in tracking Obama's margins in battlefield states

    What a Numbers Nitwit! No wonder you have always been wrong about everything, every day in every way since Jan 2002 on these boards & since 1943 off them.

    No way can Romney be leading in the national average & not ahead in at least half of the swing states.

    The polls you like surveyed preposterously too many Democrats.

    Romney would win with 270 to 360 EVs if the election were held today.

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    • RCP says that Obama would have 294 electoral votes if the election were held today. Personally I see well over 300 for Obama.

      A number of RCP's "battlefield states" aren't truly battlefield states at all. Is Pennsylvania really a battlefield state when even Rasmussen has Obama up by five? Ditto the likes of Michigan and Wisconsin.

      Obama currently has 247 solid electoral votes and Ohio and Iowa alone would give him 271 and the election. The president would seem to have insurmountable leads in those two states

      Virginia, Nevada and New Hampshire would also seem to be good Democratic-leaning states barring a major gaffe. Crediting Obama for those two as well puts the electoral college count at 294. And Obama would be held to that only if Romney swept Colorado, Florida and North Carolina, not exactly sure things for him.

      As things now stand, polls conducted in the last 30 days excluding GOP outliers Rasmussen and Purple Strategies show Obama to be leading in every on except North Carolina. In that state, he trails by a scant 0.1% and then only because one maverickl poll hin that state shows a Romney lead of 7%. .

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Who knows? He takes what has been the most accurate poll for several cycles out and seems to be totally unaware that if you use Real Clear numbers and simpy add the Romney states to the staes he is now leading, you come up with 273 electors. Romney has been on a roll since the first of the month and if the Dems can't stop the trend, Obama is in real trouble. Obama's best hope is to call in sick on the next debate.

      • 2 Replies to carolharold123
      • RealClearPolitics has Romney with 191 safe electoral votes and has him leading in Florida (29 EV's, North Carolina (15 EV's) and Colorado (9 EV's). That puts him up to 244 if he wins all three. For my part, I give Romney North Carolina but my methods actually show Obama still ahead in Florida and Colorado.

        If Romney is going to unlikely carry any other battleground state, it would be Virginia (13 EV's). That would give him 257 at most. But any state now in the Obama column beyond Virginia is almost hopeless for Romney. Obama continues to have very hefty leads in Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. Needless to say, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are just solidly in the Obama column and shouldn't be considered battleground states.

        If you somehow come up with 273 Romney electoral votes, you are going to have to show me the arithmetic. Besides the 191 electoral votes that RealClearPolitics shows, what states do you think Romney is leading in that would up the total from 191 to 273? Be specific.

        Sentiment: Buy

      • He should call in too busy raising illegal money from China.

 
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