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  • fizrwinnr11 fizrwinnr11 Oct 15, 2012 12:41 AM Flag

    Superior methods in tracking Obama's margins in battlefield states

    RCP says that Obama would have 294 electoral votes if the election were held today. Personally I see well over 300 for Obama.

    A number of RCP's "battlefield states" aren't truly battlefield states at all. Is Pennsylvania really a battlefield state when even Rasmussen has Obama up by five? Ditto the likes of Michigan and Wisconsin.

    Obama currently has 247 solid electoral votes and Ohio and Iowa alone would give him 271 and the election. The president would seem to have insurmountable leads in those two states

    Virginia, Nevada and New Hampshire would also seem to be good Democratic-leaning states barring a major gaffe. Crediting Obama for those two as well puts the electoral college count at 294. And Obama would be held to that only if Romney swept Colorado, Florida and North Carolina, not exactly sure things for him.

    As things now stand, polls conducted in the last 30 days excluding GOP outliers Rasmussen and Purple Strategies show Obama to be leading in every on except North Carolina. In that state, he trails by a scant 0.1% and then only because one maverickl poll hin that state shows a Romney lead of 7%. .

    Sentiment: Buy

 
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