Why Romney isn't gaining any more ground in RCP polls in battlefiled states
RCP has used the same procedure in its poll averages ever since it started. It keeps polls in the averages for two weeks.
What a non compos mentis Numbers Nincompoop!
Romney's surge has nothing to do with chicanery & everything to do with reality, which of course is not your long suit.
The tracking polls are always in the average because they are continuous. The polls you like all absurdly oversample Democrats. Obama suddenly surged in Gallup's when it changed its methodology to head off legal attack by Holder's Dept. of Injustice. It raised the percentage of cell phone calls without any valid basis, so that the number of young & minority voters polled climbed & the number of older, white voters fell. As a result, whites went from 74% or more of the sample to 68%, for instance. That is totally at odds with reality.
Well, I just checked RCP and Obama's lead margin just got halved. It is now 201 Obama and 191 Romney. The shrinkage continues for Obama. If RCP continues to throw out ancient polls, Obama is going to lose. This could turn out to be the first election ever that was lost because pollsters removed old meaningless polls from their calculations. The fix is in, LMAO.
Obama's lead shrank only because RCP put back into play previous Obama states Pennsylvania (20 EV's), Michigan (16 EV's) and Wisconsin (10 EV's). At the end of September, RCP had Obama margins in these states between 6 and 9 points but when they threw out all of the late September polls, the margins became 4 to 5-percentage point leads, just below RCP's 5% threshhold.
These polls from late September, some showing Obama even with a double-digit lead, are hardly "ancient." And even though some of them are only taken once every three or four weeks, the orgainizations conducting them certainly aren't going away. How ridiculous to just willy-nilly toss out a late September poll showing Obama to be ahead by 10% in Pennsylvania, Michigan or Ohio by such as CNN or CBS. Obviously there are going to be new polls by these organizations and even though the new polls may show Obama to be ahead by "only" 7 or 8% instead of 10 or 11%, when the new polls are added to the mix, the Obama margins will be increasing. At this late stage of the race though with so few undecided and with absentee voters already casting ballots, even a 4% advantage is insurmountable barring a major Obama gaffe.
If you truly think that states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are true toss-up states up for grabs, maybe we can arrange a nice, friendly cash wager with the stakes held by an impartial escrow company.
RCP keeps state polls longer than the national average because there are fewer of them.
All polls before Oct 3 are meaningless. If you, Alan, want to behave like a real Numbers Man, then exclude all polls from that day back. Any recent polls in battleground states showing Obama up by four or five points or more are totally bogus, with Democrats outnumbering Republicans by far more even than in 2008. Ridiculously biased, intending to fool fools like you.
All polls before Oct 3 are meaningless. If you, Alan, want to behave like a real Numbers Man, then exclude all polls from that day back.
On 9/27, We Ask America completed a Michigan poll of 1,041 LV's showing Obama to be up by 12 points. Do you think that We Ask America has conducted its last poll in the state of Michigan? They only seem to poll in that state every three or four weeks but you can bet your bottom dollar that when they release their latest results in a few days, it will show Obama to be up by 7, 8 or 10 points. Obviously that in itself will change the consensus by quite a bit.
Just willy-nilly tossing out the late September polls showing Obama up by considerable percentages is just digging your head in the sand like an ostrich. Obviously these polling organizations will be shortly coming out with post-debate numbers that while being below the late September numbers, they will still show hefty Obama margins. That's why it's incredibly naive and just plain wrong to throw out all the late September polls. Because once the infrequent pollsters that had Obama ahead by a ton finally release post-debate figures, the current consensus percentages now only showing October polls figure to have increased margins for Obama.
So just when the GOP would want to show the Romney bounce continuing, just the opposite figures to happen. It will be the Dems who will increasingly be showing better numbers. This isn't exactly tough to anticipate.
Speculators in the electronic markets are generally good numbers men and they instinctively know this. Or do you think they are simply dupes and suckers to be wagering almost $2 on Obama to win just one?