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  • fizrwinnr11 fizrwinnr11 Oct 15, 2012 12:27 AM Flag

    Why Romney isn't gaining any more ground in RCP polls in battlefiled states

    RealClearPolitics completely switched methods about ten days ago regarding polling averages. Previously they had shown averages for polls taken in the previous 30 days but right after the debate, they began showing only polls conducted in the month of Octboer.

    That of course completely threw out many of the network and university polls which are only conducted about once or twice a month. Completely gone right after the debate were polls from late September showing Obama with leads of 5, 7 and even 10 points in some state polls.

    Well, guess what? Many of these organizations are starting to come out with their latest fortnightly polls and they are still showing Obama ahead if not by margins of 5,7 and 10 points, more like 3, 5 and 8 points. And when these new polls start being factored into the mix, the ostensible big Romney trend gets halted in its tracks and even partially reversed. Did RCP really think that a state poll conducted on, say, Sept. 28 by a network should be completely ignored? The immediate ostensible surge for Obama due to RCP chicanery in changing methods is being shown to be fleeting.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • Hey, ignoramus!

      RCP has used the same procedure in its poll averages ever since it started. It keeps polls in the averages for two weeks.

      What a non compos mentis Numbers Nincompoop!

      Romney's surge has nothing to do with chicanery & everything to do with reality, which of course is not your long suit.

      The tracking polls are always in the average because they are continuous. The polls you like all absurdly oversample Democrats. Obama suddenly surged in Gallup's when it changed its methodology to head off legal attack by Holder's Dept. of Injustice. It raised the percentage of cell phone calls without any valid basis, so that the number of young & minority voters polled climbed & the number of older, white voters fell. As a result, whites went from 74% or more of the sample to 68%, for instance. That is totally at odds with reality.

      • 2 Replies to suckeesuckeesuckee
      • Well, I just checked RCP and Obama's lead margin just got halved. It is now 201 Obama and 191 Romney. The shrinkage continues for Obama. If RCP continues to throw out ancient polls, Obama is going to lose. This could turn out to be the first election ever that was lost because pollsters removed old meaningless polls from their calculations. The fix is in, LMAO.

        Sentiment: Buy

      • RCP keeps state polls longer than the national average because there are fewer of them.

        All polls before Oct 3 are meaningless. If you, Alan, want to behave like a real Numbers Man, then exclude all polls from that day back. Any recent polls in battleground states showing Obama up by four or five points or more are totally bogus, with Democrats outnumbering Republicans by far more even than in 2008. Ridiculously biased, intending to fool fools like you.

 
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