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  • fizrwinnr11 fizrwinnr11 Oct 25, 2012 12:46 PM Flag

    How the electoral college is shaping up

    Giving Obama Pennsylvania and Michigan where he has insurmountable four to five percentage point leads, the current electoral count is 237 Obama and 206 Riomney.

    There are four states where Obama has led throughout and where he has workable 2 to 3 percentage point leads that are pretty much holding. These four states are:

    1) Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - 2.7% Obama lead
    2) Nevada (06 electoral votes) - 2.7% Obama lead
    3) Ohio (18 electoral votes) - 2.1% Obama lead
    4) Iowa (06 electoral votes) - 2.0% Obama lead

    Romney has one state, Florida (29 electoral votes) that he will likely carry.

    Factoring in these states, the count becomes 277 Obama and 235 Romney.

    There are really only three true tossup states left with a combined 26 electoral votes as follows:

    1) New Hampshire (04 electoral votes) with a current 0.8% Obama lead
    2) Virginia (13 electoral votes) which is a dead tie
    3) Colorado (09 electoral votes) which has Romney ahead by 0.2%.

    If Obama carries Ohio and Wisconsin as expected, Romney would have to take both Iowa and Nevada as well as Virginia and Colorado to win. In that case, the race would be thrown into a 269-269 tie if Obama took New Hampshire. But Romney faces truly long odds of that happening with the days winding down and few apparent game-changing catalysts on the horizon.

    In trading on the electronic markets, Obama is currently at 60.0 cents bid, 62.5 cents asked on the Iowa Electronic Market and is at 59.9 cents on Intrade.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • Yet again you show your numbers numbskullery.

      Romney is tied in latest MI pool & would leading in NH & VA except for huge outliers included in the average. They're statistically tied in OH, WI, IA & NV, with Romney ahead in CO.

      Obama is being forced to borrow money to run ads in PA.

      Same as always, you're totally out to lunch. The race is tied, with Romney gaining in every group he needs to win.

      The media are as usual covering Hussein's #$%$ by not reporting adequately on the scandal of Benghazi.

      You sound worried.

      • 2 Replies to quimbyzombie
      • Here is what I wrote four days ago:

        There are four states where Obama has led throughout and where he has workable 2 to 3 percentage point leads that are pretty much holding. These four states are:

        1) Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - 2.7% Obama lead
        2) Nevada (06 electoral votes) - 2.7% Obama lead
        3) Ohio (18 electoral votes) - 2.1% Obama lead
        4) Iowa (06 electoral votes) - 2.0% Obama lead

        Here are the current numbers:

        1) Wisconsin - Obama is at 2.3%, down slightly from 2.7%.
        2) Nevada - Obama is at 2.4%, down slightly from 2.7%.
        3) Ohio - Obama was still at 2.1% until the outlier Rasmussen poll dropped him to 1.9%.
        4) Iowa - Obama has GAINED slightly in the state and is now up 2.3%, up from 2.0%.

        In addition, New Hampshire is now a new state in the Leaning Obama column. It only had Obama up by 1.1% on Thursday but now he's up by 2.0%.

        Romney is also going south in Florida where the consensus has him up by 1.5% as compared with 1.8% last Thursday.

        In states where the current margin is 1.5% or more, the electoral college count is 281 for Obama and 235 for Romney with only two true tossup states - Virginia with 13 electoral votes and Colorado with 9. Romney needs to carry both tossup states to keep me from posting here in February. As for the overall election though, Romney has no chance. Apparently you have forgotten what a terrific numbers analyst I am.

        Sentiment: Buy

      • Obama forced to borrow money to run ads in Pa.? I live in Pa. and Romney is not winning this state, any more than the Phils are winning the World Series. Sorry pal.

 
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