Obama is at a 4-day high close on the Iowa Electronic Market
Yahoo won't let me post the link of course, but here is what Gallup has found in its survey of those who have already voted, intend to do so early & on Nov 6:
Romney Leads Among Early Voters, Similar to His Likely Voter Lead
Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.
Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.
2012 Candidate Preference According to Early Voting Status
Can't show chart.
Fact that actual voting mirrors results from Gallup's likely voter screen validates their methodology.
The Gallup Organization will be on its way to becoming defunct a week from today. They just won't be able to survive showing Romney ahead by five points when those wagering actual money in the Iowa Electronic Markets see a three-point win for Obama. In the Iowa market and at Intrade, speculators are more than willing to lay $8 on Obama to win just five.
Even Rasmussen isn't as much of a GOP outlier now as it was about a month ago. If I was in the Gallup Organization, I'd certainly have to wonder why this poll is so very much different than virtually every other poll. It just HAS to be the methodology; Gallup simply hasn't kept up with new technologies such as the i-Phone. Such users aren't being contacted by the pollsters and for the most part, they are the younger set who overwhelmingly favor Obama.
As has been repeatedly shown you, Gallup actually interviews more cell phone users than their actual share of the population, forced to do so by Holder's threats of legal action. As a result their share of the white vote is several percent lower than reality.
You have yet to explain what makes an iPhone different for polling purposes from any other cell phone.
Say what you will about him but a man who certainly knows a thing or two about numbers and gambling is ardent Romney supporter Donald Trump. If Trump really thought that Romney was leading by five to seven percentage points as Gallup has been showing, do you think for one minute that he would have attempted his "October Surprise" farce the day after the last debate? He knew full well though who was leading and that there were no more apparent catalysts on the horizon before Election Day and he felt that he had to try something DESPERATE to try and boost Romney's chances. Do you see any big Obama supporters feeling the need to try such things?
If nothing else, Trump's actions should tell you loud and clear which is the candidate that is now coasting towards victory.