He says that Obama has an 85.1% chance of winning the electoral college vote. That's up from 75.3% before Hurrican Sandy blew away Romney's slight chances.
In the popular vote, Silver sees Obama garnering 50.6% to Romney's 48.3% and Libertarian and other candidates getting 1.1%. He sees Obama as having an 80.5% chance of winning the popular vote.
He has seven battleground states after giving Obama Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Hampshire. So before considering the battlefield states, he starts with Obama at 253 electoral votes and Romney with 191. In the seven states with margins of less than 3.5%, Silver sees it this way:
Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Obama will win by 3.1% and has an 85% chance of winning.
Iowa (06 electoral votes) - Obama will win by 3.3% and has an 83% chance of winning.
N.H. (04 electoral votes) - Obama will win by 3.1% and has a 79% chance of winning.
If Obama carries just these battleground states, he would be up to 281 electoral votes.
Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Obama will win by 1.5% and has a 71% chance of winning.
Colorado (09 electoral votes) - Obama will win by 1.5% and has a 68% chance of winning.
If Obama carries these states as well, he would be up to 303 in the electoral college.
Silver has Romney winning North Caroloina by 2.3% with a 79% chance of winning. If that happened and everything else went according to form, the electoral college count would be 303 Obama and 206 Romney with only Florida up for grabs.
In Florida, Silver gives Romney a razor-thin 0.2% edge with a 54% chance of carrying the state.
So depending which way Florida goes, the final electoral college count should either be 303-235 Obama or 332-206 Obama. .