Your assumptions are in error: 100 puts at 10 strike means you are at risk for $100k, not just $20k - if HPQ fails and the stock is put to you at $10. So you are attempting to overcome an $8k loss but by putting $100k at risk to hoping you make $3k? That's crazy.
Very good analysis. It's nice to see that some people get it. He sure doesn't.
He claims, with no basis whatsoever, that he knows how low a stock could go in a bear ,market, with fundamental destruction of businesses, etc. He has no clue. Extreme leverage works very well in a rising or even benign market. It fails miserably in a bear market. He showed that with his original Pfe program. While not as risky, his present put writing is not without significant risk, especially with some of the more risky stocks he is using. In particular, HPQ has become an extremely dangerous stock just over the last few months as the shift to tablets from PCs has rapidly accelerated and sharp reductions and competition in Enterprise have become apparent. To think that he knows that the stock won't get completely destroyed, is naive. He demonstrates yet more naivete when he thinks that when he takes a loss in a put write transaction that he must roll down in the same stock rather than write a far more likely to succeed put.. His strategy assumes never giving up on a losing stock, only continued rolling while the company goes downhill. That is not a strategy that makes any sense. It is simply a demonstration of arrogance.
Once he said that his original basis for his Pfe puts and Leaps was 100K, even though it is obvious that one could not put on his positions without further funds, he lost my interest completely. Alice in Wonderland is not investing. Phony calculations don't cut it and can't be taken seriously.
Add to that his complete failure to understand the businesses of the companies in which he makes his options bets. His getting into GE options to avoid risk to financials is a classic example. The bottom line is he has no idea what he is doing.
MY computer repairman has said nothing to ME about tablets. I certainly trust HIS opinion over the riff-raff on this board. I'm sticking to MY guns on this one. HP's stock price is only down as a result of the credit crunch crisis because investors are lumping it in with banks.