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Pfizer Inc. Message Board

  • fizrwinnr11 fizrwinnr11 Apr 27, 2013 1:27 PM Flag

    BIDU portfolio update

    03/25 - transfer in 300,000 from the Pfizer portfolio. BIDU stock is at $84.85, S & P 500 is 1,557

    03/25 - 302,740 - ($85.33) RSI 35.0
    04/02 - 323,085 - ($88.12) RSI 46.6
    04/05 - 293,125 - ($83.59) RSI 34.8, lowest stock close and valuation from inception
    04/12 - 337,805 - ($90.62) RSI 56.9
    04/18 - 313,645 - ($86.47) RSI 45.8
    04/19 - 314,445 - ($86.43) RSI 45.7
    04/22 - 306,925 - ($85.66) RSI 42.2
    04/25 - 349,725 - ($92.34) RSI 60.2, highest stock close and valuation from inception
    04/26 - 305,205 - ($85.02) RSI 44.2

    Up 1.7%. Portfolio gain to date
    Up 0.2%. BIDU stock from inception

    Up 1.6%. S & P 500 from inception of investment (1,557 to 1,582)


    Note: This is one of the fastest-growing companies its size in the world but with a sharp one-year slowdown in 2013 due to massive R & D expenses this year. The recent earnings history and consensus expectations for this dominant Chinese search engine are as follows:

    $1.53 in 2010 (actual)
    $3.02 in 2011 (actual)
    $4.79 in 2012 (actual)
    $5.32 in 2013 (consensus - 11% expected annual growth)
    $6.75 in 2014 (consensus - 27% expected annual growth)
    $8.59 in 2015 (consensus - 27% expected annual growth)

    And yet even with this torrid growth, BIDU which is stll near not far from a 30-month closing low has only the same 13 PE relative to 2014 expectations that Pfizer has. This makes little sense to me even considering that BIDU earnings are slowing.

    This is about as compelling a buy as I've ever seen and in the fullness of time I expect to earn a small fortune here. BIDU by the way was a $166 number in mid-2011 when earnings were only $3.02 a share versus an expected $5.32 this year. Two years ago, the major competitor was formidable GOOG but onerous Chinese government restrictions are chasing that company out of China and the major competitor today is Qihoo 360 Technologies (QIHU) which is just 1/8 BIDU's size.

 
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