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Pfizer Inc. Message Board

  • fizrwinnr11 fizrwinnr11 May 25, 2013 12:24 PM Flag

    Updating the 300K BIDU portfolio

    03/25 - transfer in 300,000 from the Pfizer portfolio. BIDU stock is at $84.85, S & P 500 is 1,557

    03/25 - 302,740 - ($85.33) RSI 35.0
    04/02 - 323,085 - ($88.12) RSI 46.6
    04/05 - 293,125 - ($83.59) RSI 34.8, lowest stock close and valuation from inception
    04/12 - 337,805 - ($90.62) RSI 56.9
    04/22 - 306,925 - ($85.66) RSI 42.2
    04/25 - 349,725 - ($92.34) RSI 60.2
    04/26 - 305,205 - ($85.02) RSI 44.2, Q1-13 earnings and 2013 outlook disappoint
    05/03 - 300,285 - ($84.51) RSI 43.5
    05/10 - 368,245 - ($95.45) RSI 65.3
    05/14 - 353,645 - ($92.84) RSI 58.4
    05/17 - 368,125 - ($94.72) RSI 61.3
    05/20 - 397,725 - (100.49) RSI 69.9 - highest stock close and valuation from inception
    05/23 - 371,845 - ($93.89) RSI 55.0
    05/24 - 380,765 - ($96.45) RSI 58.3


    Up 26.9%. Portfolio gain to date
    Up 13.7%. BIDU stock from inception

    Up 06.0%. S & P 500 from inception of investment (1,557 to 1,650)


    Note: This is one of the fastest-growing companies its size in the world but with a sharp one-year slowdown in 2013 due to massive R & D expenses this year. The recent earnings history and downwardly-revised consensus expectations for this dominant Chinese search engine are as follows:

    $1.53 in 2010 (actual)
    $3.02 in 2011 (actual)
    $4.79 in 2012 (actual)
    $5.04 in 2013 (consensus - 05% expected annual growth)
    $6.25 in 2014 (consensus - 24% expected annual growth)
    $7.81 in 2015 (consensus - 25% expected annual growth)

    And yet even with this torrid growth, BIDU which is still not far from a 30-month closing low has only a 16 PE relative to 2014 expectations, just slightly above PFE's 13. This makes little sense to me even considering that BIDU earnings are slowing.

    This is about as compelling a buy as I've ever seen and in the fullness of time I expect to earn a small fortune here. BIDU by the way was a $166 number in mid-2011 when earnings were only $3.02 a share versus an expected $5.04 this year. Two years ago, the major competitor was formidable GOOG but one

 
PFE
31.94-0.03(-0.09%)Dec 19 4:01 PMEST

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