Any shift of the strong buys to just a buy or hold will send the shares spiraling another 5-9%. The analyst consensus is certainly a bit skewed to the top end.
Let's put it this way, using a qualitative scoring metric, where strong buys = 2, buys = 1, holds = 0, sells = -1, and strong sells = -2. On a weighted basis, this gives us a score of 0.5, or between buy and hold. I would expect the consensus to drift lower towards a hold overall.