1)The yen/usd rallied since 14.nov 2012 from 79 to 89, total 10 points, which is 11% rally in 2 months. In this time MTU rallied from $4.4 to $ 5.4, total $1.0, which is a 23% rally. Nikkei also rallied 11%.
2)Little history: In apr.95 the yen was 81, and rallied to apr.97, that is 1 year to 126, a total of 45points, a 55% rally. The Nikkei index rallied in this period from 14.000 to 22.000, total 8.000 points, 57% rally,
Looks like history teaches us a yen rally makes a similar size NIKKEI rally, and makes a double size rally in MTU.
3)Now, use these historic data as a rule to estimate what will happen if the yen rebounds from the extreme overvalued 77in the last year back all the way against the USD to its historic average of cca. 125? (or maybe 147?)
Then NIKKEI should rally in 2013 a similar percentage like the yen, 62%,
up to cca. 14.000.
This assumes no economic/banking advantage will come in this period, just the revaluation of the yen will make that much price change in NIKKEI.
And then MTU should rally at least double speed, like in the last 2 months it did, and us it did a total120%, from current $5, up to $10-$12.
If the similarity holds in timeframe too,, this rally should last 9-12 more month, until the end2013..
I have a good sized position in MTU. And in other banks.
Buy yours, and hold.
This will be the best investment opportunity in at least 10 years. The risk is minimal.