If this technology pans out we will all be rich no matter if one of the main three Companies flames out.
I will be the first to host the ALNY summer BBQ at my Mansion on the cliff in Hawaii (to be purchased from the ALNY 100 plus fold stock appreciation I am expecting over the next 5-10 years).
One prediction is that as the technology will develop much more rapidly than any other form of therapeutic, we won't be waiting 20 odd years for ALNY to reach the same market cap DNA curently has. It will be much much faster. That is what really excites me. Wait till the first efficacy studies start coming out and people realize this will work in Humans and is transferable to many targets/disease.
Inflation adjusted 50-100B in 10 years.
Look you have your opinion and I have mine.
For every stock that is purchased, somebody sells. Both traders think they have got the best deal on the trade.
I have been in the biotech/pharma business long enough to know that nobody is going to let BLT go bankrupt. In one form or another the IP will persist since its potential has not be proven/dispoven at this point and since the potential is so high, for it to go away, ddRNAi has to be shown to be useless. It is way to early to do that. When I am buying BLT it is solely based on their IP....that is all. The two development programs are "fat" and could be junked for all I care. The IP has got to be worth way more than USD $10M when ALNY already has a market cap of near $500M
I will not post another pro-BLT message here again as it is getting tedious defending BLT.
The core issue here is one of risk-reward when buying BLT. Sure there is always some risk, but my estimation is the reward is high enough to warrant it.
<Companies like this don't go bankrupt......>
How can you say this and what do you mean? Companies with IP patents in dispute go bankrupt all the time. Benitec looks to me like a troll company trying to weasel in on the original Fire and Melo patents. It is being sued in venues world wide by Nucleonics. Benitec's lead counsel John McKinley resigned as CEO. Looks pretty grim for this troll company, I just dont understand why Alnylam hasn't joined in with Nucleonics in the patent suit.
Re: BLT is a money trap
by: pfizerbull 04/18/06 09:40 pm
Msg: 2517 of 2521
Companies like this don't go bankrupt......I agree if you don't like speculation, BLT is definitely not for you. This is not investing at all.....rather I have seen this sort of thing a lot......the real big money is made when the "end of the world" looks close.
With BLT it looks terrible...no cash, people leaving, ex directors selling shares etc etc. I like it. If you disregard short term cash issues the company is in much better shape than it was 1.5 years ago when it traded at $1.5
What is the difference now.....perception. If this wasn't a RNAi company I wouldn't go near it....just like I don't go near biotech companies whose whole future depends upon the outcome of one pivotal phase 3.
However if you believe RNAi will work via ddRNAi as I do.....then I am taking a calcluated risk.
I just think it is WAY to early to have decided ddRNAi won't be useful as a therapeutic.
Further ddRNAi may have use in transgenic plants (think pest resistance etc etc). BLT has this covered in their patents. The IP is being valued right now at almost nothing.....but thats my opinion.
YOUR OPINION ISN'T WORTH THE HALITOSIS ITS CARRIED ON.....GET LOST STUPID!
Good post and analysis of the issues.
My bet is private equity might very well be involved. Don't forget that they can't just take-over the Co without acceptance of some of the larger shareholders. If it comes to this, negotiation will ensure we get a good price. Don't forget, me and you got in cheap. Some of the largest shareholders are staring at some nasty losses if they sold the Co for even twice its value now. I don't see them doing this unless a fair offer is made (i.e. well above where the stock is here).
I believe BLT has plenty of negotating power as they simply need to find a pharma partner. I am amazed this has not happened yet (last minute negotiating over rights perhaps). This is of course my (and most shareholders) preference.
The last thing I want BLT to do is go back to the market. The last fundraising was a mistake. They should have partnered before that but of course they spent ages resolving the IP issues.
My feeling is we will hear about some pharma partnering in the next 3-6 months. An infusion of cash and stock purchase for rights to develop ddRNAi therapeutics in certain areas and/or have BLT do early development for them.
Its an interesting proposition about Sirna. Im a shareholder in Sirna too, so if a stock swap was proposed that would be most excellent (at the right swap price of course). It would strengthen Sirna and make a good profit on my BLT gamble.
My average down price is AUD 11c so I am not that much below you.