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Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • rnai_inv rnai_inv Feb 13, 2012 7:00 AM Flag

    I see downside potential for the stock given the rapid cash burn rate

    "Alnylam has already had a huge run, doubling in price since late November. The RNAi therapeutics company currently has three experimental therapies in phase 1 clinical trials and one in phase 2 trials. Partnered with Cubist Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: CBST ) to license the drug worldwide (excluding Asia), ALN-RSV01 is aimed at treating RSV infection in adults. With no other trials currently past phase 1, it's this RSV drug that holds all of the promise for Alnylam. Personally, I see downside potential for the stock given the rapid cash burn rate and the fact that a marketable drug still appears to be years away."

    This is what the Fool writes. Everybody with some understanding of this stock knows that RSV is basically a failure that should have been stopped years ago. Any positive results from this trial will be upside instead of risk. But this type of writing and the CEO keep new investors away.

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    • So does this company still have hope?
      Cash burning...

    • They announced they will primarily focus on TTR and Hemophilia. I am not much of a scientist to understand what these targets mean. May be it is good that they are focusing in the short-term on these two. However, I know how to read between the lines from today's announcements and these are my 2 cents ... they annouced they will do a secondary of 7-8M shares. This is bad. Very bad. They had a barrage of good news, and promise of the human proof of concept. And the crescendo is this news? This means they see no prospect of injection of funds by other biotech companies. No more $100M partnerships. Alny will be riding the 5x15 program alone.

      The secondary announcement also tell us they are not seeing any good news coming up so they had to slap the offering now while investors are intoxicated with good news. This news capped the run from 6-7 to $13. I thought I will buy back in low $11s or high $10s. I will be staying away for now and wait to figure out where the bottom will be.

      BTW, I also doubt the 80M estimate for expenses in coming year. Company has not had any targets in advance clinical stages. It may add up to more than what they estimate today. I would be a skeptic of these estimates at this point.

      PS Shorts were busy during January. If they continued in Feb up to $13 then they will own this stock again in coming months.

 
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