When I bought in at $11.75, I really thought I was in at a bargain price with the move from December steadily climbing to $13+ Can anyone tell me what entity(ies) lost faith in this company and why? I also thought there'd be a bounce today after earnings beat estimates by 30% and revenues also came in higher than expected. I just don't get it. There latest results are right around the corner. Can someone shed some light on the selloff from $13 down now to $9.75 ? Also, estimates still have a target price of $17 !
First the stock is in a range now, 10 to 12 for now but that may change. Until a catalys presents itself and changes the game, we will stay in ranges. For now try to buy at 10 and sell at 12. If you are looking for long position, reduce your average to close to 10. But this is a speculative play, there is no guarantee they will have a drug in the market. So don't make this a large position in your portfolio.
As for selling, large mutual fund companies are not selling, they are buying. Hedge funds may keep large positions but they have to make money each quarter and each year to stay competitive. They can't park large sums in a speculative play. So they may trade the range around their core position. Then, there are the shorts who have increased their exposure lately. But they are not in charge anymore. At these levels it is dangerous to be short. I think longs are in charge. They will put up a fight to stop it from sliding under 10. Have you noticed how suddenly JPM endorses the stock when it deeps below 10. They ran the secondary and don't seem to have any postition. But they are "watching their client's back."
Thank you. Good analysis. I made money on ALNY last Fall but then bought/sold at a loss 3 more times until the end of November. Figures it would double once I got out. Then I got in again after it had dropped and could have made money had I held for only a few days but it went down ever since. Knowing it has potential, this time I've stayed with them. But with Europe still messing with markets and China's economy slowing, I"ll likely get out the next time they're close to 11.75 to break even and then get back in after the above settles a bit.
I suggest you try to understand what this company is doing, and not really telling you.
- They expect bad RSV results. - They quit the huntington program - They don't have much hope for partnerships soon - They may be moving to another location - They keep spending huge amounnts of money on litigation - The ceo is an idiot, who doesn't even try to get investors interested or supporting the company
>> Also, estimates still have a target price of $17 !
Targets also had an estimate of 35 when the stock went from $25 to $6
I could go on. But please review the financials and programs, you will learn much more.
The market for biotechs is bad, add that to the list.
This is a thinly traded stock with only a $500 million market cap. How difficult is it to manipulate the price? The answer: it is easy for institutional / hedge fund investors. The overall US market is weak now. It could be the case that an entity that would like a large,or larger, position, is trying to move the price down by selling into the overall market weakness so they can buy more at a favorable price.
The worst thing that can happen to this company is that they get bought out by Novartis or other big pharma at something like $500 million - just for the patents. The likely case will be a $100+ stock in a few years. Some of the drugs they are working on will hit. How often do you get a chance for a ten times multiple on the upside and get what you put in on the downside. This all of course ignores what inflation may come into the picture.
There’s an old saying on Wall Street about insider buying: there are many possible reasons to sell a stock, but only one reason to buy. Back on February 21, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc’s Director, Paul Schimmel, invested $999,997.25 into 93,023 shares of ALNY, for a cost per share of $10.75.
A Nobel Prize winner told me face-to-face that RNAi is only new thing to come into medicine in decades or perhaps ever.