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Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • kot882001 kot882001 Aug 7, 2012 7:28 PM Flag

    Why ALNY is going up

    The board lately seems to be occupaied by shorts. Ley see why ALNY is good short candidate:
    1. "It is going to $10" (Why?) Here is the answer:
    2. "It is a scam". (Again,- why?)Seems that they succeeded to fool a lot of leading scientists from Big Pharma companies, but not this one particular investor. LOL.
    3. "the company never made money" (this one clearly comes from someone new to biotech investing, so I'm not even going to dignify it with response)
    I can continue with these garbage "arguments", but I don't think it is necessary. I'd understand if someone would say "the chart shows the next leg is down"; or: "the trial results are bad"; or, even, "they're going to run out of money soon so secondary coming".

    So, lets get serious. ALNY is a buy, because:

    1. THE SCIENCE WORKS! So far their trial results were very good and they VERY SLOW, but staedy moving to much promising results.
    2. MOMENTUM. Soon they're going to announce new partnership with probably 50-100M upfront, development cost sharing and 20%+ royalties. The stock can immediately jump over $20+
    3. POTENTIAL. The speed of development seems accelerating. So, in 3-9 months, when they eventually get to phase III of trial they will get much higher visibility, and, accordingly higher price. I think we'll see $25-$30 before we'll see $10.
    Whoever diagree with me I suggest shorting more- this will be lesson in investing, but not cheap one...

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    • The big reason for the run down the last two years was Roche walking away from the partnership over an earlier failure. With the recent successes, I'm betting on Roche wanting to tie up the platform ALNY is advancing and buying the company. $30 to $35 a share before the end of the year.

    • a_million_miles_from_monday a_million_miles_from_monday Aug 7, 2012 10:06 PM Flag

      You are certainly entitled to your opinion, and I am entitled to mine. This company is involved in very advance medicine research and trials are nothing but the tests to see if their research is working.

      So in this case let us say the trials are successful, indicating that the research is working. But, from research & tests to FDA approval and commercial manufacturing and successin selling the drugs making huge profits is a loooooong way.

      I am sorry but until they start making consistent profits, I can not justify $20 price per share. May be you can justify this overvaluation based on predictions and expectations.

      That being said, if their RNAi research proves successful and company makes profits selling such advance medicines I will happily invest in the stock and possibly pay even higher share price without any objections.

      In the mean time, good luck to all...shorts and longs on ALNY.

      • 2 Replies to a_million_miles_from_monday
      • A-million, you've said
        "May be you can justify this overvaluation based on predictions and expectations"- this is exactly how stocks are priced! On expectations, not on the past performance.
        Take for example ONXX- valued 5 times ALNY, no profit. Would you short it? Take HGSI- no profit, but was taken over... On the other hand take IGT- has profit!! but went down because it was less than expected...
        So, expectations are the key and in ALNY case it seems that they're in right place. Of course, in 1-2 years ALNY might turn a profit, but then you'll buy it from me paying $30+...

      • the stock grows weaker.weak shorts covering sustain prices but you are running out of them.down we go.

    • I agree with you whole heatedly. I have been in since 2004 and never sold a share. I am a believer in this company.

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