A comprehensive analysis of the earnings report and the tepid forecast
going forward indicates the following (5) reasons to SELL FIVE NOW....
(1) Retail is in trouble going forward. Not enough money in common people's
pockets to go shopping even for Necessary items.. let alone optional / junk
items offered by (1-5) dollar stores....
(2) The concept of "5" dollar store cannot be sustained for too long... $ 5 is a lot of
money... buy 10 items and u got a $ 50 + tax bill... compare that to $1 store
where the bill would be $ 10... for teenage junk shoppers ... $ 1store is the better
(3) Revenue growth (read Motley Fools today).. at just 110 MM in total revenue is slowing
confirming point (2) above.
(4) There is NO need for FIVE in ones portfolio (when u can buy a more rewarding
issue like say OMED at half the price....) better to wait for the next quarter report
and see where she goes.. I would be willing to pay a bit higher price if the "Growth" story
is confirmed .... rather than see this one do a ULTA in 3 months....
(5) It has been "blessed" by Cramer.. the guy who advices to stay away from Retail
sector... Yet recommends FIVE after a bad current report as well as going forward.
Let her sink to BELOW IPO price... then dig into it if trend is confirmed.... FAIR MV as per
my analysis is $ 19 max.