perhaps they cut the price anticipating medicare reimbursement? i have heard richard boland speak on several occasions. real technology backed by good science. current cancer screening strategy of colonoscopy every ten years beginning age 50 is brain dead. thirty percent of this demographic will have a polyp, yet less than 1/100 to 1/1000 polyps will become malignant. every endoscopist in the country would have to work twenty four/seven to screen the entire US population employing this strategy. medicare currently spends billions on colon cancer screening. they pay for a screening colonoscopy every ten years. a stool test could be used as an interim biomarker between recommended screening intervals in average risk as well as increased risk individuals (ulcerative colitis, FAP, HNPCC, etc). applied genomics is the future. this type of research is not that expensive. add a few additional markers to your panel, collect a specimen and scope some patients that were previouly scheduled for screening, on somebody elses nickle. no phase III study, protracted time line, adverse reactions, etc. the current generation assay may fall down on sensitivity for cancer because only 85% of sporadic colon cancers evolve through the APC mutation pathway. add the methylation assay which will pick up epigenetic silencing of the mismatch repair genes, and you may be looking at a different set of results. with a profits margin of 95% at $700/assay, you have considerable latitude in pricing your product. right now, the brunt of colon cancer screening is suffered by the private insurers. patients are demanding screeing between ages of 50 and 60, yet medicare reaps the greatest benefit through decreased future health care costs when the patient turns 65. the total unbundled charges for colonoscopy with facility charge, anesthesia charge, professional fees and pathology can easily run $3000 plus. drop the cost of the assay, add some antigens to your panel, perhaps combine it with a fecal blood test, and you may have something the payors will incorporate into their screening paradigm. insurers would do anything to get this monkey off their back. this company is not going to go away. an option without expiration. patience.
If you've seen me post before on other boards, you know I'm an IA. We have a speculative position in EXAS- for several months now, did trade once for 35%+, used some of profit to buy most of Sept 5 calls currently outstanding- for the following reasons: 1. If efficacy of test improves, the potential is huge. 2. We believe the efficacy will improve. I.e. better markers (relatively soon). 3. Once test exceeds 75% accurate, we believe it will be a co-gold standard test and insurance companies and Medicare will get on board. 4 If PG becomes a cash cow, this company will have more products within a few years of such time.
Clearly if the test doesn't improve, company could wash out. Do your own research. We're not betting the farm on this one, but think it's a very good speculative play.
how torqued can can you get over shorting a two dollar stock? the company is not going away. the science is valid. recent move probably surrounding acg. good support in $2.30 range. could this test ever become availabe OTC, given the high reported specificity for cancer? hemocult is available OTC, with terrible sensitivity and specificity. a screened patient is always better than a dead patient, and any screening is better than none. just a thought.
If you are who you say you are, then you must have listen to the conference call. Good info. Lots of potential. Sensitivity numbers appear better than some of the crap posted here and could get much better. Can mgt comments be trusted, given the past? Remains very speculative.