Let's assume for a moment that PG got approved for standard of care at this wkends meeting. Anybody want to discull in a SERIOUS way what the process and outlook would be. Geiven the lack of Lab Corp sales production do people think sales would do what???? Would Lab Corp begin pushing Pre Gen? Would Exas develop their own sales force or hire an existing one?
Don't know how many folks are familiar with CYTC and "thinprep" but it is a pretty close analogy. In fact I don't thin Exas could go wrong by linking up with CYTC and using their sales force. Are they locked in with Lab CorP? If so for how long and are their any performance clauses in the contract???
Anyway any real thoughtful analysis would be interesting.
It wasn't all Cytec that made ThinPrep Go. The marketing was not only pushed by Cytec but rather it was the commitment by the DGX sales force, a host of supporting studies, and acceptance by ACOG that moved Thinprep...
LH can do the same thing. The Cytec sales force doesn't need to be involved. The Model is an easy one to implement. The only problem is getting EXAS and LH on the same page.
LH seems to be in a great position to own the technolgy by simply letting Exas flounder and Exas really doesn't seem to be inclined to press their benefactor in any meaningfull way toward moving the product.
I do not currently hold DGX, CYTEC, or LH stock but I do own EXAS and sure would like to see these folks put something together soon. Hell, I'm willing to go back into the field to push this test!
Excellent! You are correct about LabCorp's poor field performance. Using Cytk's mktng mdl could work but LH would have to make the same commitment to move PreGen that DGX made to Cytk for it to work. In the ThinPrep effort it was a collaborative effort between the two companies.
FWIW there are two Cytk board members on the EXAS board. I am curious as to what form the next round of financing will take, private placement secondary or partnership? Be interesting to know if they wait for Medicare approval or jump after ACS screening guideline inclusion.
I think EXAS will have to bide it's time with LabCorp -- 2 years remaining on the exclusive agreement.
EXACT doesn't have the money to develop it's sales force haven't you read of the layoffs this past year to slow the burn rate?
I don't think the Cytc analogy is appropriate for a couple of reasons:
1) Thinprep was by far the better product (over standard pap) and became the market leader within 2 years. Here we are 3 years later and still sucking air.
2) PG+ is not the better product vs colonoscopy Sure it's more conveient, but it's also only diagnostic whereas clonoscopy is also therapeutic with removal of polyps. If you have a positive PG+, you still need a colonoscopy.
3) Huge price difference. Patients were willing to pay the nominal diff. out of pocket between standard pap ($25.00 vs $50.00 for thinprep -- now $75.00+) With PG+ as expensive as it is no doc wants to hear patient's scream that their insurance wasn't goign to cover the charge.
4) Liability. Back to clear superiority of thin prep vs no demonstrated superiority of PG+ over the satndard of care. What doc wants to be sued for not following standard of care should something develop after a negative PG+ result?
Selling activity of the last several weeks should provide you with the best predictor of future growth. The news of the last few days should have slowed the selling but it hasn't. My guess is there is something suspect in that 88% sensitivity finding.
>Don't know how many folks are familiar with CYTC and "thinprep" but it is a pretty close analogy. In fact I don't think Exas could go wrong by linking up with CYTC and using their sales force. Are they locked in with Lab CorP? If so for how long and are their any performance clauses in the contract???<
Go back and listen to the conference call of last Monday. You will find your answers there.
I believe that EXAS has a contract with LabCorp thru 2007.
Am familiar with CYTC and "thin-prep".
For what it's worth, I believe that the founder of CYTC was also the founder of EXAS ( back in 1987 ) Mr. Stanley N. Lapidus.