There are many companies that tout their potential for gain, but few talk about the potential for loss, or the protection from loss.
Because EXAS has appx 90 cents a share in cash with a low burn rate at present, the short term downside is very low from the present price of 92 cents. Whereas, SQNM has a high burn rate and only a little over a $1 net of cash with a $16 share price, the downside is quite large.
The market potential of sDNA is larger than the neonatal market since there are 90 million people who need to be screened for CRC or at least 20 million annually in the US alone.
sDNA is already in the ACS guidelines, so once an FDA version is approved the sales should take off. Whereas, SQNM still must prove that their test is better than the other non invasive in a head to head study, and then hope to be included in the screening guidelines.
SQNM is where EXAS was at the beginning of this decade, with a test that is being hyped but has NOT yet shown results from a large real world head to head study.
I believe that one very savvy hedge fund who lost on EXAS is now short SQNM. Most of the owners of SQNM have no idea what is required to for a general population screening to be successful. The long time owners of EXAS know all about "homebrew" tests, and guidelines, and reimbursement for exciting new non-invasive tests.
There will be a lot of very disappointed SQNM investors at the end of this year.
I think EXAS is priced extremely attractively, and a new CEO will hopefully be able to effectively communicate how he will realize the value of sDNA for aero digestive cancers.