pro has me on ignore so unless someone cuts/pastes he will not see and i am not creating a new profile so please help.
this is in response to havrilla's post on 7/15 in seekingalpha.com
so...pro...what about it? what's your take on the competitive set and non crc applications?
Hello Mike, A non invasive screening test for Colon Cancer (as well as the other cancers mentioned in your post) is much needed, however, having followed Exact since their founding, I would describe what has happened thusly: The prior management team, and their sDNA test for Colon cancer was a failure. A new management team has been installed, and a completely new technology (new IP, new methodology/technology for detecting sDNA) has been acquired. This is a restart/recap, and, as the company will tell you, it will take 2 - 3 years to bring this test to market, if in fact it does make it to market, there are no givens. So, if you are willing to pay $100 mm today for a technology that might develop into a large test 2 - 3 years down the road, more power to you. As for your claim that the technology could be used in other indications such as pancreatic cancer detection, obviously you have seen the abstracts from recent conferences to this effect, however, have you confirmed with Mayo/Ahlquist that the IP license covers ALL indications or is the IP simply related to Colon. I have not inquired on this matter, and I think before you publish such claims, you need to confirm them with the Company. My initial checks indicate that the IP license is ONLY for Colon.
In summary, I do not refute that non invasive Colon cancer screening is dearly needed, and a large market opportunity. However, Exact has failed once to develop a commercially/clinically successful test in this area, and have now hitched their boat to a new set of IP which does hold promise, but is all on the come, 2 - 3 years out. In addition, there is a non invasive Colon cancer test which may be on the market by late 2009, early 2010, which not only will be able to detect Colon Cancer, but will also be able to inform the patient/physician what stage (pre cancerous, stage, I, II, III, IV/metastatic), and ultimately how aggressive. My point simply being, Exact is not alone in this race, and they just reset the clock with this new IP, and are starting from scratch.
bump this and lets see what pro was saying in Aug
<<<"* that the test is at stage 1 and we still do not know if it will work.
*At the best we are 2 years away.
* There is competition out there that is more precise and will be first to market.>>>
1)The test is already in the guidelines....It works! Conroy is simply making it better. He has already proven he can bring a product through the FDA. Conroy did NOT come to EXAS for a few hundred grand salary a year. He came to EXAS because he BELIEVES, after much due diligence, that he will produce a VERY profitable product that will produce large profits for EXAS. EXAS is a 6 months away from starting a study that will produce an FDA approved CRC screening test. There is very little risk of not getting approval for a screening test from the FDA, because there is NO risk from the product. False positive are sent for the already recommended diagnostic test, colonoscopy.
2) EXAS will start the study next year, and based on his answers in the last CC, the study will take less than a year. Professional investors who listen to Conroy's presentation at both the Rodman and Baird conferences will want to buy in early because they know that waiting will only produce a higher price. EXAS will have analyst coverage this year recommending purchase with very large EPS in a few years. EXAS and researchers like David Ahlquist at the Mayo Clinic, and Bert Vogelstein at Johns Hopkins, and been perfecting this technology for a decade. Professional investors who owned Third Wave will want to bet on Conroy again. EXAS has 10 times the opportunity in GI cancer screening than TWTI had in HPV testing. TWTI had a few hundred million market cap prior to starting their study, and so EXAS will have at least a couple hundred million market cap in a few months.
3)There is NO non invasive competition that is more precise than stool DNA.
Now that I have again set the record straight I will be putting you on ignore with the other MORONS!
<< ...their sDNA test for Colon cancer was a failure. ... a completely new technology (new IP, new methodology/technology for detecting sDNA) has been acquired. This is a restart...>>
I see the situation very differently. The key EXAS IP for CRC screening is, and has always been, based primarily on the vimentin gene. The old Pre-Gen product failed because it was expensive (about $800, later reduced to $495) and was marketed before ACS guidelines inclusion, without FDA trials. It used 23 genetic markers, including vimentin (which provided most of the performance). Later versions used far fewer markers, always including vimentin, with similar or better performance as Pre-Gen.
SDNA was taken off the market for political reasons (FDA policy change unrelated to performance). I believe current product development for CRC screening relates to automation and tweaking (picking which marker or two or three, already developed and included in several published studies, to combine with vimentin for cost effective high performance). Superior performance for around $150, with full FDA approval and ACS guidelines inclusion, will be light years ahead of the previous SDNA products, as well as non-invasive competitors. I believe the extension to other forms of cancer will be a more substantial, longer term effort, also exciting.
Be careful who you believe, there is a lot of misinformation around. There is no reliable substitute for doing your own due diligence.
When this stock starts to elevate, it will be terribly amusing to see you perform the verbal equivalent of grinding your teeth and frothing at the mouth. Smarter people than you are already buying.
. . . maybe, here is the info and a link . . .
<A simple blood test for colon cancer
Date:11/20/2008[Outline] [RSS & Subscription]
People are often reluctant to undergo a routine but painful colonoscopy ― but the consequences can be fatal. According to the American Cancer Society, colon cancer is the third most common cancer found in American men and women and kills about 50,000 Americans every year.
"85% of those who develop colon cancer have no symptoms or family history," says Prof. Nadir arber, a professor of medicine and gastroenterology, at Tel Aviv University's Sackler Faculty of Medicine. "Generally speaking, it's much harder to get these people to comply with taking the test."
To convince more people to undergo the potentially life-saving colonoscopy, Prof. arber has developed a simple early-warning test that can detect colon cancer in the blood. Using biomarkers, it is the first test on the market that can detect cells of colon polyps the precursors to colon cancer in the blood, with a very high degree of sensitivity and accuracy.
This painless, non-invasive and inexpensive test could very well be a breakthrough of the decade.
An Attractive Diagnostic Step
"If we can identify those who are prone to cancer through a less invasive test, we can convince them to do the colonoscopy," leading to earlier detection and treatment, says Prof. arber, who heads the Integrated Cancer Prevention Center at the Tel Aviv Souraski Medical Center.
Now being prepared for the market by Bio Mark Ltd., a subsidiary of Micromedic Technologies Ltd., Prof. arber's "CD24" test could begin to save thousands of Americans' lives by as early as 2010. With the test, doctors can catch polyp growth in the colon in 80% of patients.>
classic pro . . .
<Conroy did NOT come to EXAS for a few hundred grand salary a year.>
so a million shares for a few hundred grand, means a PPS of .30 . . . nice call pro, even farrker is higher at .55. lol . . .
<False positive are sent for the already recommended diagnostic test, colonoscopy.>
. . . so that means all positives, how would you know they were false . . . this is just a pretest, so it must be cheap to be worth it . . .
<EXAS and researchers like David Ahlquist at the Mayo Clinic, and Bert Vogelstein at Johns Hopkins, and been perfecting this technology for a decade.>
PERFECTING???, gawd, get an FDA approved test to market, and then worry about perfecting . . . it sounds like their still trying to get the engine to turn over . . . perfecting, sheesh . . .
<Professional investors who owned Third Wave will want to bet on Conroy again>
. . . conroy's record is to prove value in a small biotech and SELL IT . . . i guess after next years trial that he shops the company, likely to be bought by GENZ at 6-8.- PPS . . . then he and his buddies don't have to wait 4 years for payday . . . the BOD is also likely growing old, waiting for the payoff . . . i bet they sell . . .
<3)There is NO non invasive competition that is more precise than stool DNA. >
i can't imagine that the entire scientific community can't come up with a better prescreening method that scanning poop . . . the competition is out there, one good cancer sniffing lab would do it . . .
. . . so once again, proisback unspun . . . it's gets boring, but hey, it's a hot lazy summer sunday . . .
feel free to debate, i don't put people on ignore, lol . . . that's for children, who put their hands over their ears and run away humming loudly . . . grow up, pro . . .