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Exact Sciences Corporation Message Board

  • kenluskins kenluskins Dec 29, 2010 5:44 PM Flag

    PLEASE read carefully

    We have sold all our shares in Amarin.

    That said, the biorunup folks and other assorted speculators may push AMRN higher prior to the Marine study results.

    We sold because:

    1) Way too many insiders are selling. This selling includes the Sr. VP of development who is overseeing the 2 FDA studies. 2 of the large investors represented on the BOD have now sold shares. Also, the prior CEO, who was given the title of honorary chairman, just resigned....presumably so he could sell his stock.

    2) The new CEO seems incapable of making a coherent presentation to the investment community. When we lose faith in management it is better to sell than stick around, and try to force the BOD to make changes.

    3) The Chief medical officer took a job with another company while still being employed as CMO of AMRN.....this is unheard of in public companies that are real.

    4) Parts of the Marine study were conducted in Russia...... no need for further explanation if you know anything about corruption and Russia.

    While AMR101 is a product that I would use, the Marine study will probably produce results that are worse than the what Lovaza showed in the over 500mg group for TG reduction.

    The real value of AMR101 is in the larger group of people who are under 500mg, and that study will not report until mid 2011.

    I fear that people will see that AMR101 produces a slightly less reduction in TGs in the over 500mg group, and therefore conclude that the product is inferior to Lovaza.

    The disappointment could drive the stock back down to $1 or so.

    I do not like to own stocks when the insiders are selling millions of shares!

    Good luck to all traders.

    I will NOT be posting anymore!

    I just wanted to be upfront and honest about where I stood on this situation at this time.

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    • !!!!!!!


      Closed at $17.87 today.
      Tremendous upside gained from the low to mid $3.00s


    • Can anyone supply an up to date link for current institutional holders. (Yahoo holder info is dated) Does IVM still show as a holder of EXAS? Thanks! Full disclosure: I have been a quietly patient holder for years

    • i know one who bought more after he sold :) ... exas is another one he pounded the table on much to my benefit ... i am not a client of ken's (full disclosure)

    • "Thorough due-diligence is key."

      I am bewildered to have learned that Pro sold his position so prematurely...though he states his reasoning.

      Why would a professional money manager have sold after all their own due diligence?

      It just doesn't make sense.

      To me, it's like a marathon runner who after having run the 26 miles, decides to give up on the remaining 385 yards.

      I wonder what his clients thought of that decision?


    • Excellent point Chas!
      Thorough due-diligence is key.

    • No question Pro has a big ego and can be very rough to deal with. And, no question he didn't predict the timing correctly. The delay you mention is only a small part of it, he was already heavily invested in EXAS when I made my initial purchase in 2007, and predicting imminent big gains. In fairness, no one could have predicted the FDA letter and financial crash and other misadventures we long-timers have suffered through. There is most definitly light at the end of the tunnel now though. Pro's strength is finding underappreciated biotechs with the potential for success. It can take a long time for them to become appreciated, and it can be very hard to guess when that will happen. With enough patience and nerve, you can hang on until it happens. Thorough DD gives the confidence to hang on during the scary times.

    • "If Pro is truly bullish on a stock, it is worth consdering sreiously, but it is hard to be sure what is real."

      He is a most enthusiastic investor.
      But he and his huge Ego get waaaaay ahead of themselves as his "time-lines" are not realistic.
      It appears that he can have great difficulty in admitting when he is wrong.

      His constant claims about when EXAS would be finished conducting their Validation Study/Data were not accurate, and his claims about how the Company might guide in regards to the FDA clinical trial time-line weren't even close, let alone when the Cologuard assay would be locked down. As far as the latter is concerned, "pro4exas" was off by roughly a year . . . having posted on January 28th of 2010:

      "Conroy will update on the progress made, a most likely indicate that the assay has been locked down."

      Moreover, on January 20th of 2010 "pro4exas" posted:

      "I think there is high probability that time guidance for the validation study be moved forward to March or April from May to Aug."

      And on March 2nd of 2010 the following post from "pro4exas" stated:

      "I expect that the validation study guidance to be moved from the third quarter into the 2nd quarter.
      I also expect the FDA study public guidance start to be moved from 2nd quarter 2011 to the 4th quarter of this year."

      At this point, (given what has actually transpired) I'm not even sure that you can be of the opinion that he is an overly optmistic fellow.

      Thankfully for ALL of us, the board dumped Luber and Hardison and brought in a REAL management team with a proven track record and ability to commercialize "Cologuard", which at this point, barely resembles the stool DNA CRC screening test from Exact's earlier years, known as "PreGen+".

      Good Luck to All!

    • MS - I noticed that misspelling too. It may have been posted by someone else, but I was in email contact with Pro last fall and winter, and he forwarded an email to me from which most of the post "Please read carefully" was an excerpt. He did say he might come back in, before the second (and more important) study results, which he said weren't expected until mid-2011. I assume he did. From his remarks, I'm sure it would give him satisfaction to know I very substantially reduced my AMRN holding before the big rise, on his advice. I kick myself for that now, but still made some money. I was pre-occupied at that time with the illness and passing of my mother, and didn't fully investigate the situation.

      If Pro is truly bullish on a stock, it is worth consdering sreiously, but it is hard to be sure what is real.

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