Fri, Aug 1, 2014, 12:52 AM EDT - U.S. Markets open in 8 hrs 38 mins

Recent

% | $
Click the to save as a favorite.

Exact Sciences Corporation Message Board

  • stockinsight43 stockinsight43 Apr 18, 2013 8:51 PM Flag

    42% success? Isn't that like just flipping a coin? Why would the FDA approve that?

    I mean seriously, how is a 42% detection rate better than randomly flipping a coin as to whether someone has a precancerous polyp? Please tell me how it's different, and why the FDA would overlook that an approve?

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Hey Stockinsight, I don't know whether you have any insight into stocks, but clearly you have no insight into medical statistics. The company was guiding to sensitivity in the mid-50s (i.e. closer to a 50/50 coin flip than 42%). Why would they do that if that is no better than flipping a coin? Because of specificity you knucklehead. Why don't you go learn something about the product and the science and then come back here and try to have an intelligent discussion. Wkipedia has an excellent discussion of the following terms:
      sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value. Then learn how these terms apply to programmatic sensitivity then come back and discuss.

    • All they have to do is to redesign the test to consist of testing 2 different samples taken several days apart.
      If one test is 42%, would two different samples give a 84% detection rate, or at least much higher than the 42%?

    • You are terribly ignorant.
      The 42% rate of detection is for pre-cancerous polyps at the size of 1 centimeter.
      The rate of detection for COLON CANCERS was 92%.

      The FDA required the Cologuard test to reach the above 92% sensitivity WITH A LOWER BOUND OF STATISTICAL CONFIDENCE AT 65% OR GREATER. THE STATISTICAL CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR THE ABOVE 92% RATE OF CANCER DETECTION WAS IN THE MID-80 PERCENT RANGE.

    • 1cm is 42%, 2cm is 66%, so overall pre-cancer sensitivity is better than 42%. Cervical (pap smear) & breast cancer screening has similar sensitivity. The FDA approved them. The FDA approved FOBT and FIT. Cologuard's performance exceeds that of FOBT and FIT. So why wouldn't the FDA approve it? A coin flip has 50% specificity, which means the false positive rate is too high to be a useful screening test, so no, it's not just like flipping a coin. If you're going to talk about probability theory, it would help if you knew something about it.

    • Read my post below under what will happen tomorrow

 
EXAS
15.61-0.55(-3.40%)Jul 31 4:00 PMEDT

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.
GoPro, Inc.
NasdaqGSThu, Jul 31, 2014 4:00 PM EDT
eHealth, Inc.
NasdaqGSThu, Jul 31, 2014 3:59 PM EDT