First we must prepare. Using a GOOD charting tool we will take a look at the daily chart of EXAS. This does NOT include the Yahoo charts. They are convenient, right there for easy reference but by most standards, there are plenty of FREE charting tools that are vastly superior such as FINVIZ or STOCKCHARTS.
Once you have your daily chart of EXAS displayed, we will draw parallel lines to indicate our dominant trading channel. If one begins at the lows create in late November of 2012 and carries it forward in time thru the low created when the disappointing test results were announced (right at 7.00), one can see the LOWER trend line. NOW using your cursor, craw a second trendline parallel to the first and drag it upwards to where the left end is positioned just above the peak at around 12.00 this past January. We now see clearly that we have a trading "channel". This will be where most of our obvious trades will take place.
As you can see, we broke out of this channel on intentional manipulation during mid May and rose from the 10.50 area all the way up to the 14.50 area without so much as week of consolidation. LOOK at the chart. Do you see the day where the stock hit 14.50 having risen from 13.05 , and 12.00 just 2 days prior, only to close near the low of the day and 2 days later, continuing that down trend, closing at THE low of the day. THIS children, is what we call a HIGH SPIKE BLOWOFF TOP. It's formation is indicative of a reversal of trend during an over extended bubble. It's as if it forms a pip point from which the stocks price "POPS" and all of the hot air that was pumped into it (by the manipulators) comes flowing out as the stock plummets to the ground. In this case the ground would appear to be around 10.00 per share. However, as this was clearly a manipulation, it may be necessary for the stock to go all the way back down to the 7.00 are and bounce off of that point as a means of psychological support.
In essence, it's an excellent stock to AVOID
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Look at Craphead trying to claim he got something right for a change! LOL!!! You take the cake Craphead. I knew you'd show your fat head here again. Wrong 9x then AFTER the fact claiming you got one right? LOL!!!!!
AHAHA!!! Bin time for you clown.
Wow, WICKED head and shoulders guys. I love these easy money short plays, they just don't come along that often. I must admit Im grateful for the massive runnup over the last few weeks as I had triple downed on the stock in the 7's and sold in the high 13's. This gave me the much needed capital to short the bejeaazus out of the stock when we crossed 13.80 for the 2nd time. It was a bit scary for a day or two, but now I believe the short traders are "home free". If we break 12.75 I think the we could see an acceleration of the down draft and the mid 9's are a "shoe in". Good luck to all! (no offense longs, I'll be back on your side soon enough)
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Sound observations Nebula. I find it humorous that despite todays continued downward bias, you drew out a cacphony of know nothings who are destined to become next weeks bagholders. Ahhh well. Ce la Vie! It takes all kinds of (nutjobs) to make a market. LOL ! Good tidings to you sir! Please feel free to post your opinions and observations more frequently.
Agree with you on the chart analysis, but you're wasting your breath. Nobody here is interested in this kind of analysis. They're all flying high on hope and dreams.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Lots of words to express your bias. Curious how you include in your trend-line the $7.00 dip in April, but exclude the recent jump to $14.42, discounting it as "manipulation". Convenient.
Your technical analysis wants for one thing that most such myopic view lack - an analysis of what caused these price movements. The drop to $7 was the market's reaction to EXAS missing their own guidance wrt the FDA study results. The product still has the same odds for approval and for success. The only hit may be the reimbursement CMS offers. During that market reaction, over 5.5 million shorts piled on at below $9, another 2.3 million between $9 and $9.50 and another 1.6 million jumped on between $9.50 and $10. or 9.4 million below $10. The market soon realized the test was still the best available and that EXAS was soon going to be submitting for FDA approval, which they would likely receive. The stock then did a slow, steady climb to $12, a
33% jump for the 5.5 million $9 shorts. Ouch. Many likely got a tap from their broker telling them to pony up. Run to $13, or 44%. Yikes! More margin calls, more shorts cover. Spike to $14.42 or 60%. Mon dieu!
If you had never seen a real short squeeze, you have now.
i'm still puzzled as to why he thinks we are here to learn from him, lol . . . delusions of grandeur . . .
agreed, but that was just a mini squeeze, likely due to margin calls . . . the real squeeze is still ahead . . . MS's comment was too cool, lol, not ready to be a "teenager", as we sit just under 13.- . . . maybe bar-mitzvah lessons are on going . . .