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Fairpoint Communications, Inc. Message Board

  • meloshosh meloshosh Apr 27, 2012 7:02 PM Flag

    Short Squeeze Coming Next Week

    Been a long while ... been buying shares all along down here ... short interest up to 4.3mm shares (~1mm shares shorted in the beginning of April --> 1/3 of all shares traded in that time frame were short sales) and NO more shares for borrow unless you consider 50k shares at 15% available borrow ... thats why volumes are way down the last week and a half

    on top of all that earnings coming out on Wednesday after the close of market ... unless management lays an egg the shorts are in trouble ... they cant defend their position

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    • I agree about the employees. the communications industry is going through a huge manpower downsizing as more becomes more automated.
      The question about frp is what goes faster - voice going down or ip going up. they need to buy time by slowing down the voice decline for the ip side to catch up.
      I think frp is going mostly after the big business, where their fiber network can play a bigger role.
      Time will tell about the business segment and amount of traction they get there.
      I agree with you about triple play and I understand them not wanting to do huge capex for retail when they have large debt to begin with.
      everyone is right and here we are.
      so far, frp played defense well enough. now its time to see how they attack things outside of their traditional comfort zone...
      If they partly exploit the potential in their assets, this company would go to much more than $7/share.
      good luck to us and to the employees.

    • New ownership is very key to FRPs success. Triple play is too. TWC is really pushing their business package hard, and they have the TV to push it on. I still get daily glossy fliers from FRP, and once you read the fine print, you find that TWC beats em in MBps per dollar, about tied on phone service, and no mention or very little about any triple play or TV package. They were teamed up with one of the satellite companies, but don't see much at all about that anymore. The only subscriber gains for FRP were in the DSL/broadband areas. Subscribers went up 7.1%, revenues 1%. What this tells me, and I could be wrong, is that the DSL subscribers added are on the low end of the MBps spectrum. Buck for buck, FRP loses to TWC every time. I do expect this to go to 6-7 and then a sale to another company. Just ruminating, need to see next quarters financials to see what the trend will be. Good luck to all, and may God watch over the FRP employees, except for the execs, heh.

    • you have 25-26M shares out of which over 4M are shorts. over 13M shares are at steady longer term hands. hedge funds are known to change their tastes, but the fundementals here are getting better, not worse.
      I would have liked to see frp going after retail, but I do understand their point - smaller investment is needed in business (especially when you own 14,000 miles of fiber and access points to your customers).
      if I am right everyone will win (except for the shorts). if I am wrong everyone loses (except for the shorts).
      I do believe that eventually they will go after triple play in selective areas, but that will be under new ownership with lower cost of capital.
      only my thoughts on the subject.
      good luck to us all.

    • Glad you made some dough on this. I still don't see it going much above here. This does indeed look like more than a margin call uptick. Wonder what next short % is going to be.

    • Boy, this sure is looking like a $20 stock alright. For all the shares that is. You're right, this is fun to watch.

    • This is a $20 stock if you look at the numbers. I bought some at $4.40, some at $4.17, but most at 3.78. Super fun to watch.

    • Bust me up. Here is one of your posts from last year, when you were buying this POS at 6.99. So when do you think it's going to hit $21? You better hope it hits $7 again, which is about the best price FRP will get if they can find a sucker to buy em out. 92% of this supposed stock is owned by insiders and institutions. Small time investors, except those able to short this in the early days, have been and are being coited. Bust me up dude.

      BTIG - FRP (BUY) - Revising estimates and maintaining Price Target of $21 30-Aug-11 01:45 pm
      BTIG just put 7out a note on FRP revising estimates higher and maintaining a price target of $21 per share. The first paragraph of the note is as follows:

      We are revising upward our revenue and EBITDA estimates for the remainder of 2011 and 2012 and maintaining our price target of $21. We believe that the company has demonstrated several sequential quarters of revenue stabilization in the $255-$260mm range and that cost cuts instituted in the second half of 2011 will drive substantial margin expansion that could benefit EBITDA as early as Q4 2011 and certainly through most if not all of 2012.


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